Document Detail

'Last-minute' donations influence actuarial prediction in an anatomical body donation program.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  19880299     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
BACKGROUND: At some American and European universities the dissection program is threatened by a shortage of anatomical specimens. In contrast, the annual numbers of registrations at the University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG) in the Netherlands increased substantially in recent years. Uncontrolled body registrations and an increasing number of incoming bodies urge institutes to halt registration. This is usually carried out on an ad hoc basis because to date no analyses were available to predict the consequences of such a stop, resulting in uncertainty about the number of incoming bodies or a shortage. METHODS: The UMCG holds a database consisting of two different data sets: registered potential body donors and records of deceased body donors. This database currently consists of 2357 potential body donors and 1363 deceased body donors. These data were incorporated in an actuarial predictive model. FINDINGS: A substantial number (on average 29%) of the persons registered between 2003-2008 died within 1 year after registration and seemed to have made a 'last-minute' donation decision. Last-minute registrations are significantly more likely to be males than females (n=155 vs. n=85, p<0.01%). This new information markedly influenced final modeling. In coherence with standard models of mortality, it was possible to construct a prediction for the incoming bodies for the coming years. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides the first method to reliably model the number of incoming deceased donors of a body donation program for 5 years based on actuarial predictions, and to orchestrate these numbers by partial donor registration stops.
B S Wijbenga; R H Koning; B J Kooistra-Akse; S Bolt; J B M Kuks; G van Zanten-Timmer; J G Veening; P O Gerrits
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2009-10-07
Journal Detail:
Title:  Annals of anatomy = Anatomischer Anzeiger : official organ of the Anatomische Gesellschaft     Volume:  192     ISSN:  1618-0402     ISO Abbreviation:  Ann. Anat.     Publication Date:  2010 Feb 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-02-09     Completed Date:  2010-04-30     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  100963897     Medline TA:  Ann Anat     Country:  Germany    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  2-6     Citation Subset:  IM    
Copyright Information:
Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
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MeSH Terms
Actuarial Analysis
Attitude to Death
Databases, Factual
Dissection / methods*
Education, Medical
Ethics, Medical
Tissue Donors / statistics & numerical data
Tissue and Organ Procurement / statistics & numerical data*,  trends*
United States

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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