Document Detail

Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: Does climate matter?
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22142789     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni-Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence.
Anna-Sofie Stensgaard; Jürg Utzinger; Penelope Vounatsou; Eveline Hürlimann; Nadine Schur; Christopher F L Saarnak; Christopher Simoonga; Patricia Mubita; Narcis B Kabatereine; Louis-Albert Tchuem Tchuenté; Carsten Rahbek; Thomas K Kristensen
Related Documents :
15811539 - Generalized modeling approaches to risk adjustment of skewed outcomes data.
24889989 - Spatial correlation in bayesian logistic regression with misclassification.
21480739 - A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors.
17146979 - Mixture of normal distributions in multivariate null intercept measurement error model.
8321009 - Bayesian analysis of mixtures applied to post-synaptic potential fluctuations.
23409509 - Accountability analysis of title iv phase 2 of the 1990 clean air act amendments.
8897389 - Performance-influencing factors in homogeneous groups of top athletes: a cross-sectiona...
16274499 - Spatial and temporal epidemiology of sporadic human cases of escherichia coli o157 in s...
15319259 - A method for estimating stochastic noise in large genetic regulatory networks.
Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2011-11-28
Journal Detail:
Title:  Acta tropica     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1873-6254     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2011 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-12-6     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0370374     Medline TA:  Acta Trop     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark; DBL, Department of Veterinary Disease Biology, University of Copenhagen, Thorvaldsensvej 57, DK-1871 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
Export Citation:
APA/MLA Format     Download EndNote     Download BibTex
MeSH Terms

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

Previous Document:  Malaria in India: the center for the study of complex malaria in India.
Next Document:  Improving malaria control in West Africa: interruption of transmission as a paradigm shift.