Document Detail

Influence of calibration methodology on ground water flow predictions.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  14763615     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
We constructed a numerical model of transient ground water flow and solute transport for a portion of the Biscayne Aquifer in Florida, and calibrated the model with three different combinations of data from a 193-day period: head (h) data alone, data on h and ground water discharge to a canal (q), and data on h, q, and ground water chloride concentration (C). We used each of the three calibrated models to predict h and q during a 182-day test period separate from the calibration period. All three calibrated models predicted h equally well during the test period (r = 0.95, where r = 1 indicates perfect agreement between measured and simulated values), though the model calibrated on h alone had significantly different parameter values than the other two models. Predictions of q during the test period depended on calibration methodology; models calibrated with multiple targets simulated q more accurately than the model calibrated on h alone (r = 0.79 compared to r = 0.49). Based on the results of these simulations, we conclude: (1) Post-calibration prediction is important in assessing the value of different data types in automated calibration; (2) inverse-solution uniqueness is not a requirement for accurate h predictions; (3) relatively simple models can predict with reasonable accuracy transient ground water flow in a complex aquifer, and parameters governing this prediction can be estimated by nonlinear regression methods that incorporate both h and q data; (4) addition of C data to the calibration did not improve model predictive capacity because the information in the C data was similar to that in the q data, from the perspective of model calibration (the subsurface chemical signal in question was controlled mainly by seepage of high-chloride canal water into the low-chloride ground water system).
James E Saiers; David P Genereux; Carl H Bolster
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Ground water     Volume:  42     ISSN:  0017-467X     ISO Abbreviation:  Ground Water     Publication Date:    2004 Jan-Feb
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2004-02-06     Completed Date:  2004-05-06     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9882886     Medline TA:  Ground Water     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  32-44     Citation Subset:  IM    
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Models, Theoretical*
Water Movements*
Reg. No./Substance:

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