Document Detail

The Indian Ocean Dipole and malaria risk in the highlands of western Kenya.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  19174522     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Epidemics of malaria in the East African highlands in the last 2 decades have often been associated with climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there are other factors associated with malaria risk and there is increased interest in the influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, on East African rainfall. This study explores the relationship between IOD and the number of malaria patients in 7 hospitals from 2 districts in the western Kenyan highlands, controlling for the effects of ENSO. We examined temporal patterns (1982-2001) in the number of malaria cases in relation to the dipole mode index (DMI), defined as the difference in sea surface temperature anomaly between the western (10 degrees S-10 degrees N, 50 degrees-70 degrees E) and eastern (10 degrees S-0 degrees, 90 degrees-110 degrees E) tropical Indian Ocean. We used Poisson regression models, adjusted for ENSO index Niño 3 region (NINO3), seasonal and interannual variations. The number of malaria patients per month increased by 3.4%-17.9% for each 0.1 increase above a DMI threshold (3-4 months lag). Malaria cases increased by 1.4%-10.7% per month, for each 10 mm increase in monthly rainfall (2-3 months lag). In 6 of 7 places, there was no evidence of an association between NINO3 and the number of malaria cases after adjusting for the effect of DMI. This study suggests that the number of malaria cases in the western Kenyan highlands increases with high DMI in the months preceding hospital visits.
Masahiro Hashizume; Toru Terao; Noboru Minakawa
Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2009-01-27
Journal Detail:
Title:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America     Volume:  106     ISSN:  1091-6490     ISO Abbreviation:  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.     Publication Date:  2009 Feb 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2009-02-11     Completed Date:  2009-03-10     Revised Date:  2013-06-02    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7505876     Medline TA:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1857-62     Citation Subset:  IM    
Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4, Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan.
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MeSH Terms
Indian Ocean
Kenya / epidemiology
Malaria / epidemiology*
Regression Analysis
Risk Factors
Time Factors

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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