Document Detail

Incorporating uncertainty into predictions of diffuse-source phosphorus transfers (using readily available data).
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  15850207     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Phosphorus (P) is a limiting nutrient in many freshwater ecosystems and increases in its availability can lead to eutrophication. Effective management of P in freshwaters requires quantitative estimates of P supply from all significant sources. A simple GIS-based model, capable of predicting total diffuse source phosphorus export from catchments using readily available data, has been developed. The model is based on the idea of export coefficients but includes the effects of topography (slope and cumulative area), soil type (using the U.K. Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification) and climate (hydrologically effective rainfall) as well as land use. Uncertainty in key model parameters is accounted for using Monte Carlo simulation which involves random sampling from probability density functions in a large number of iterations. This reduces the need for subjective optimisation of export coefficients. The model has been applied to the Greens Burn catchment, Scotland and predicts P exports within the confidence limits of the measured values.
E G Murdoch; M J Whelan; I C Grieve
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research     Volume:  51     ISSN:  0273-1223     ISO Abbreviation:  Water Sci. Technol.     Publication Date:  2005  
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2005-04-26     Completed Date:  2005-08-16     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9879497     Medline TA:  Water Sci Technol     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  339-46     Citation Subset:  IM    
School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Scotland, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Geographic Information Systems
Models, Theoretical*
Monte Carlo Method*
Nitrogen / analysis
Phosphorus / analysis*
Water Movements
Water Pollutants, Chemical / analysis*
Water Supply
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Soil; 0/Water Pollutants, Chemical; 7723-14-0/Phosphorus; 7727-37-9/Nitrogen

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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