Document Detail


How many hindsight biases are there?
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  17764669     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
The answer is three: questioning a conceptual default assumption in hindsight bias research, we argue that the hindsight bias is not a unitary phenomenon but consists of three separable and partially independent subphenomena or components, namely, memory distortions, impressions of foreseeability and impressions of necessity. Following a detailed conceptual analysis including a systematic survey of hindsight characterizations in the published literature, we investigated these hindsight components in the context of political elections. We present evidence from three empirical studies that impressions of foreseeability and memory distortions (1) show hindsight effects that typically differ in magnitude and sometimes even in direction, (2) are essentially uncorrelated, and (3) are differentially influenced by extraneous variables. A fourth study found similar dissociations between memory distortions and impressions of necessity. All four studies thus provide support for a separate components view of the hindsight bias. An important consequence of such a view is that apparent contradictions in research findings as well as in theoretical explanations (e.g., cognitive vs. social-motivational) might be alleviated by taking differences between components into account. We also suggest conditions under which the components diverge or converge.
Authors:
Hartmut Blank; Steffen Nestler; Gernot von Collani; Volkhard Fischer
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2007-08-30
Journal Detail:
Title:  Cognition     Volume:  106     ISSN:  0010-0277     ISO Abbreviation:  Cognition     Publication Date:  2008 Mar 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2008-02-04     Completed Date:  2008-04-21     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0367541     Medline TA:  Cognition     Country:  Netherlands    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1408-40     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Portsmouth, King Henry Building, King Henry I Street, Portsmouth PO1 2DY, United Kingdom. hartmut.blank@port.ac.uk
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Adolescent
Adult
Empirical Research
Female
Humans
Male
Memory*
Middle Aged
Optical Illusions*
Questionnaires
Visual Perception*

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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