| How accurate are doctors, nurses and medical students at predicting life expectancy? | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 19782929 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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BACKGROUND: Predicted patient life expectancy, based on a patient's medical history, is an important component of medical decision making. This study therefore aimed to determine the consistency, accuracy and precision with which doctors, nurses and medical students predict life expectancy (LE). METHODS: 20 doctors, 20 nurses and 20 medical students (4th and 5th year) independently examined 70 hypothetical patient case scenarios containing age, sex and comorbidity; this included 13 duplicate scenarios. Accuracy and consistency of prediction was assessed by comparison with statistical LE estimates generated using evidence-based actuarial and life insurance industry methods in collaboration with a team of professional actuaries. RESULTS: Doctors, nurses and medical students underestimated LE by a mean (95% confidence interval) of -1.46 (-0.31 to -2.61), -1.79 (-0.52 to -3.06) and -2.24 (-1.16 to -3.32) years with an equivalent root mean squared error (RMSE) of 4.74, 5.49 and 5.08 years respectively. LE predictions were equal to actuarial LE in less than 10% of cases and accurate to within 25% of actuarial LE in less than 45% of cases. Intra-observer reliability was 91%, 85% and 87% for doctors, nurses and medical students respectively. Inter-observer reliability was 66%, 57% and 57% for the three groups. CONCLUSION: Doctors, nurses and medical students were inconsistent, inaccurate and imprecise in their prediction of LE with a tendency toward underestimation. This may lead to patients being managed inappropriately. There is a need for improved training and objective outcome prediction models. |
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Authors:
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Michael G Clarke; P Ewings; T Hanna; L Dunn; T Girling; A L Widdison |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Comparative Study; Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Date: 2009-08-05 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: European journal of internal medicine Volume: 20 ISSN: 1879-0828 ISO Abbreviation: Eur. J. Intern. Med. Publication Date: 2009 Oct |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2009-09-28 Completed Date: 2010-02-03 Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 9003220 Medline TA: Eur J Intern Med Country: Netherlands |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 640-4 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery, Derriford Hospital, Plymouth PL6 8DH, United Kingdom. |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Forecasting Humans Life Expectancy* Nurses* Observer Variation Physicians* Reproducibility of Results Students, Medical* |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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