Document Detail

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22308325     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
The population dynamics of endemic cholera in urban environments--in particular interannual variation in the size and distribution of seasonal outbreaks--remain poorly understood and highly unpredictable. In part, this situation is due to the considerable demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity of large and growing urban centers. Despite this heterogeneity, the influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large-scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such has been previously addressed for cholera only with temporal models that do not incorporate spatial structure. Here we show that a probabilistic spatial model can explain cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and afford a basis for cholera forecasts at lead times of 11 mo. Critically, we find that the action of climate variability (El Niño southern oscillation and flooding) is quite localized: There is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. The modeling framework presented here should be applicable to cholera in other cities, as well as to other infectious diseases in urban settings and other biological systems with spatiotemporal interactions.
Robert C Reiner; Aaron A King; Michael Emch; Mohammad Yunus; A S G Faruque; Mercedes Pascual
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.     Date:  2012-01-23
Journal Detail:
Title:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America     Volume:  109     ISSN:  1091-6490     ISO Abbreviation:  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.     Publication Date:  2012 Feb 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-02-10     Completed Date:  2012-03-30     Revised Date:  2013-06-26    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7505876     Medline TA:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  2033-6     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Bangladesh / epidemiology
Cholera / epidemiology*
Endemic Diseases / statistics & numerical data*
Markov Chains
Models, Biological
Grant Support
R24 HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS; //Howard Hughes Medical Institute

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