| From the Cover: Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 19104069 Owner: NLM Status: In-Data-Review |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here, we propose a probabilistic perspective, focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields "constant returns to scale," because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered. |
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Authors:
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Michiel Schaeffer; Tom Kram; Malte Meinshausen; Detlef P van Vuuren; William L Hare |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article Date: 2008-12-22 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Volume: 105 ISSN: 1091-6490 ISO Abbreviation: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. Publication Date: 2008 Dec |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2008-12-31 Completed Date: - Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 7505876 Medline TA: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Country: United States |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 20621-6 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. |
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From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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