Document Detail


Forecasting the onset of an allergic risk to poaceae in Nancy and Strasbourg (France) with different methods.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  18237004     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Pollen of Poaceae is among the most allergenic pollen in Europe with pollen of birch. It is therefore useful to elaborate models to help pollen allergy sufferers. The objective of this study was to construct forecast models that could predict the first day characterized by a certain level of allergic risk called here the Starting Date of the Allergic Risk (SDAR). Models result from four forecast methods (three summing and one multiple regression analysis) used in the literature. They were applied on Nancy and Strasbourg from 1988 to 2005 and were tested on 2006. Mean Absolute Error and Actual forecast ability test are the parameters used to choose best models, assess and compare their accuracy. It was found, on the whole, that all the models presented a good forecast accuracy which was equivalent. They were all reliable and were used in order to forecast the SDAR in 2006 with contrasting results in forecasting precision.
Authors:
E Cassagne; P D Caillaud; J P Besancenot; M Thibaudon
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Review    
Journal Detail:
Title:  European annals of allergy and clinical immunology     Volume:  39     ISSN:  1764-1489     ISO Abbreviation:  Eur Ann Allergy Clin Immunol     Publication Date:  2007 Oct 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2008-02-01     Completed Date:  2008-02-20     Revised Date:  2008-11-21    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101466614     Medline TA:  Eur Ann Allergy Clin Immunol     Country:  France    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  262-8     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
Climat et Santé, Centre d'Epidémiologie de Population, Faculté de Médecine, BP 87900, 21079 Dijon, France.
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Allergens / immunology*
Environmental Monitoring / methods
Forecasting
France / epidemiology
Humans
Meteorological Concepts
Models, Theoretical*
Poaceae / immunology*
Pollen / immunology*
Precipitating Factors
Predictive Value of Tests
Regression Analysis
Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal / epidemiology
Chemical
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Allergens

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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