Document Detail

Forecasting the effects of health reform on US physician workforce requirement. Evidence from HMO staffing patterns.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  7912746     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
This article provides an estimate of the effects of health reform on the US physician workforce requirement. Its basic methodology is to extrapolate current patterns of staffing within managed care plans to the reshaped health care system of the year 2000. In this analysis it is assumed that 40% to 65% of Americans will be receiving care from integrated managed care networks in the near future, and that all citizens will be covered by some type of health insurance. On the basis of these assumptions, this article forecasts that in the year 2000, (1) there will be an overall surplus of about 165,000 patient care physicians; (2) the requirement and supply of primary care physicians will be in relative balance; and (3) the supply of specialists will outstrip the requirement by more than 60%. In summation, it appears that national health reform--based largely on an expansion of managed care networks--will have significant impact on the US physician workforce. Concerns have been raised by others that health system reform's shift toward more primary and preventive care will be stymied by workforce availability. This study underscores this concern to some degree. However, the evidence presented herein suggests that the issue is not so much a primary care provider shortage as a specialty care surplus.
J P Weiner
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  JAMA     Volume:  272     ISSN:  0098-7484     ISO Abbreviation:  JAMA     Publication Date:  1994 Jul 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1994-08-01     Completed Date:  1994-08-01     Revised Date:  2014-09-17    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7501160     Medline TA:  JAMA     Country:  UNITED STATES    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  222-30     Citation Subset:  AIM; IM    
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MeSH Terms
Family Practice / manpower,  statistics & numerical data
Health Care Reform*
Health Maintenance Organizations / manpower*,  statistics & numerical data
Health Manpower / statistics & numerical data,  trends*
Medically Uninsured
Medicine / statistics & numerical data
Models, Organizational
Nurse Practitioners / supply & distribution
Physician Assistants / supply & distribution
Physicians / statistics & numerical data,  supply & distribution*
United States
Comment In:
JAMA. 1995 Jan 11;273(2):112-3   [PMID:  7799484 ]
JAMA. 1995 Jan 11;273(2):113   [PMID:  7799485 ]
JAMA. 1995 Jan 11;273(2):111-2; author reply 113   [PMID:  7799481 ]
JAMA. 1995 Jan 11;273(2):111; author reply 113   [PMID:  7865005 ]
JAMA. 1994 Jul 20;272(3):239-40   [PMID:  8022045 ]
JAMA. 1995 Jan 11;273(2):112; author reply 113   [PMID:  7799482 ]
JAMA. 1995 Jan 11;273(2):112; author reply 113   [PMID:  7799483 ]

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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