| Forecasting the burden of advanced knee osteoarthritis over a 10-year period in a cohort of 60-64 year-old US adults. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 20955807 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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OBJECTIVE: To forecast the burden of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the elderly US population over a 10-year horizon. DESIGN: Using a computer simulation model of the natural history and management of knee OA combined with population-based data from the 2008 US Census we projected the 10-year burden of knee OA among persons 60-64 years of age. Knee OA incidence and progression rates were derived from national cohorts and calibrated to published literature. RESULTS: Using national data we estimated that 13% of 14,338,292 adults 60-64 years old have prevalent symptomatic, radiographic knee OA. Among persons surviving the next decade, 20% will have symptomatic advanced (Kellgren-Lawrence [K-L] grade 3) or end-stage (K-L 4) knee OA. Prevalence of advanced knee OA will range from 10% among non-obese to 35% among obese persons. Our estimates show that a more sensitive imaging tool, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), may increase the number of OA cases diagnosed by up to 94% assuming that 50% of all 'pre-radiographic knee OA' (K-L 1) has some evidence of cartilage degeneration seen on MRI. CONCLUSIONS: Projecting new and advanced cases of knee OA among persons aged 60-64 years over the next decade creates a benchmark that can be used to evaluate population-based benefits of future disease-modifying OA drugs that are currently undergoing testing at various stages. |
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Authors:
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H L Holt; J N Katz; W M Reichmann; H Gerlovin; E A Wright; D J Hunter; J M Jordan; C L Kessler; E Losina |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Date: 2010-10-16 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Osteoarthritis and cartilage / OARS, Osteoarthritis Research Society Volume: 19 ISSN: 1522-9653 ISO Abbreviation: Osteoarthr. Cartil. Publication Date: 2011 Jan |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2010-12-27 Completed Date: 2011-02-24 Revised Date: 2012-05-18 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 9305697 Medline TA: Osteoarthritis Cartilage Country: England |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 44-50 Citation Subset: IM |
Copyright Information:
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Copyright © 2010 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Affiliation:
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Orthopedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA. |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Cohort Studies Disease Progression Female Forecasting Humans Incidence Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Osteoarthritis, Knee / epidemiology* Prevalence United States / epidemiology |
| Grant Support | |
ID/Acronym/Agency:
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AG18393/AG/NIA NIH HHS; AR02123/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS; AR47785/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS; K24 AR057827/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS; R01 AR053112/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS; R01 AR053112-05/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS; T32 AR055885/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS |
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