Document Detail


Floods in a changing climate: a review.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  12804265     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.
Authors:
J C R Hunt
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Review    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences     Volume:  360     ISSN:  1364-503X     ISO Abbreviation:  Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci     Publication Date:  2002 Jul 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2003-06-13     Completed Date:  2003-07-22     Revised Date:  2013-04-24    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101133385     Medline TA:  Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1531-43     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Space and Climate Physics, Pearson Building, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Climate*
Disasters*
Ecosystem
Environmental Monitoring / methods*
Forecasting / methods*
Models, Statistical
Risk Assessment / methods*
Risk Management / methods

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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