Document Detail

European stillbirth proportions before and after the Chernobyl accident.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  10597994     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
BACKGROUND: Numerous investigations have been carried out concerning the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident, in April 1986, on the prevalence of anomalies at birth and on perinatal mortality. The accident has contaminated Eastern Europe more heavily than Western Europe. If there was an effect of the radioactive contamination on perinatal mortality or stillbirth proportions one would expect to find it more pronounced in Eastern Europe as compared to Western Europe. We therefore studied long-term time trends in European stillbirth proportions. METHODS: Linear logistic regression was applied to model the time trends in stillbirth proportions. Dummy variables were used to account for effects that can be associated with certain years or locations. A synoptic logistic regression model is suggested for the western, central, and eastern parts of Europe. RESULTS: There is a marked differential effect in the long-term stillbirth time trends between Western Europe (Belgium, France, Great Britain, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain), Central Europe (Austria, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, Switzerland), and Eastern Europe represented by four countries (Greece, Hungary, Poland, Sweden). In contrast to the western and central European trends, the eastern European trend exhibits an absolute increase of the stillbirth proportion in 1986 as compared with 1985 and an apparent upward shift of the whole trend line from 1986 on. CONCLUSION: Our results are in contrast to those of many analyses of the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident and contradict the present radiobiological knowledge. As we are dealing with highly aggregated data, other causes or artefacts may explain the observed effects. Hence, the findings should be interpreted with caution and further independent evidence should be sought.
H Scherb; E Weigelt; I Brüske-Hohlfeld
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Comparative Study; Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  International journal of epidemiology     Volume:  28     ISSN:  0300-5771     ISO Abbreviation:  Int J Epidemiol     Publication Date:  1999 Oct 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2000-01-11     Completed Date:  2000-01-11     Revised Date:  2008-11-21    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7802871     Medline TA:  Int J Epidemiol     Country:  ENGLAND    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  932-40     Citation Subset:  IM    
GSF-Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit, Institut für Biomathematik und Biometrie, Oberscheissheim, Germany.
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MeSH Terms
Europe / epidemiology
Europe, Eastern / epidemiology
Fetal Death / epidemiology*,  etiology
Infant, Newborn
Logistic Models
Population Surveillance
Radioactive Hazard Release*
Regression Analysis
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Time Factors
Comment In:
Int J Epidemiol. 2000 Jun;29(3):596-9   [PMID:  10869337 ]
Int J Epidemiol. 2000 Jun;29(3):599   [PMID:  11023371 ]

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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