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Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22459665     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
SUMMARYAntivirals are an important defence against novel strains of influenza. However, the impact of widespread drug usage on strain circulation across multiple epidemic waves - via their impact on host immunity - is unknown despite antivirals having the likelihood of extensive use during a pandemic. To explore how drug usage by individuals affects population strain dynamics, we embedded a two-strain model of within-host dynamics within an epidemic model. We found that when 40% of hosts took drugs early during the infectious period, transmission was reduced by 30% and average levels of immunity by 2·9-fold (comparable to antibody concentrations), relative to 14% and 1·5-fold reductions when drugs were taken late. The novel strain was more successful relative to the resident strain when drugs were not taken, and an intermediate level of drug coverage minimized incidence in subsequent waves. We discuss how drug regimens, coverage and R0 could impact pandemic preparedness.
K M Pepin; S Riley; B T Grenfell
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-3-30
Journal Detail:
Title:  Epidemiology and infection     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1469-4409     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2012 Mar 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-3-30     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8703737     Medline TA:  Epidemiol Infect     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  1-11     Citation Subset:  -    
Department of Physics, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
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