| Early mortality in coronary bypass surgery: the EuroSCORE versus The Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk algorithm. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 15063242 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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BACKGROUND: We compare two widely used risk algorithms for coronary bypass surgery: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk stratification algorithm. METHODS: Risk factors for all adult patients undergoing heart surgery at the University Hospital of Lund between 1996 and 2001 were collected prospectively at preoperative admission. Predictive accuracy for 30-day mortality was assessed by comparing the observed and the expected mortality for equal-sized quintiles of risk by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The discriminatory power was evaluated by calculating the areas under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The study included 4497 coronary artery bypass-only operations. The average age was 66.4 +/- 9.3 years (range 31 to 90 years). Most patients were men (77.0% versus 23.0%). The actual 30-day mortality was 1.89%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test gave a p value of 0.81 (EuroSCORE) and 0.83 (STS), which indicates a good accuracy of both models. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.88) for EuroSCORE and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.77) for STS. The discriminatory power (area under the ROC curve) was significantly larger for EuroSCORE compared with STS (p < 0.00005). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, single institution study the additive EuroSCORE algorithm had a significantly better discriminatory power to predict 30-day mortality than the STS risk algorithm for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass. |
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Authors:
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Johan Nilsson; Lars Algotsson; Peter Höglund; Carsten Lührs; Johan Brandt |
Publication Detail:
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Type: Comparative Study; Journal Article |
Journal Detail:
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Title: The Annals of thoracic surgery Volume: 77 ISSN: 0003-4975 ISO Abbreviation: Ann. Thorac. Surg. Publication Date: 2004 Apr |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2004-04-05 Completed Date: 2004-05-06 Revised Date: 2006-11-15 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 15030100R Medline TA: Ann Thorac Surg Country: United States |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 1235-9; discussion 1239-40 Citation Subset: AIM; IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Heart and Lung Center,University Hospital, Lund, Sweden. johan.nilsson@thorax.lu.se |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Algorithms Coronary Artery Bypass / mortality* Female Humans Logistic Models Male Middle Aged ROC Curve Risk Assessment Risk Factors |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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