| Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 21856946 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population. |
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Authors:
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Noelle I Samia; Kyrre Linné Kausrud; Hans Heesterbeek; Vladimir Ageyev; Mike Begon; Kung-Sik Chan; Nils C Stenseth |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Date: 2011-08-19 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Volume: 108 ISSN: 1091-6490 ISO Abbreviation: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. Publication Date: 2011 Aug |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2011-08-31 Completed Date: 2011-11-08 Revised Date: 2012-02-29 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 7505876 Medline TA: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Country: United States |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 14527-32 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA. n-samia@northwestern.edu |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Animals Disease Reservoirs Humans Kazakhstan / epidemiology Plague / epidemiology, transmission* Population Dynamics Rodentia / microbiology Siphonaptera / microbiology |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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