| Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 19171908 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. |
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Authors:
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Stéphanie Jenouvrier; Hal Caswell; Christophe Barbraud; Marika Holland; Julienne Stroeve; Henri Weimerskirch |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Date: 2009-01-26 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Volume: 106 ISSN: 1091-6490 ISO Abbreviation: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. Publication Date: 2009 Feb |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2009-02-11 Completed Date: 2009-03-10 Revised Date: 2009-11-18 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 7505876 Medline TA: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Country: United States |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 1844-7 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Biology, MS-34, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA. sjenouvrier@whoi.edu |
Export Citation:
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APA/MLA Format Download EndNote Download BibTex |
| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Animal Migration Animals Antarctic Regions Breeding Climate* Extinction, Biological* Forecasting Greenhouse Effect Models, Biological* Population Density Probability Spheniscidae* |
| Comments/Corrections | |
Comment In:
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Feb 10;106(6):1691-2
[PMID:
19193852
]
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Erratum In:
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Jul 7;106(27):11425 |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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