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Climate variation and incidence of Ross river virus in Cairns, Australia: a time-series analysis.
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MedLine Citation:
PMID:  11748035     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. Furthermore, the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values.
Authors:
S Tong; W Hu
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Environmental health perspectives     Volume:  109     ISSN:  0091-6765     ISO Abbreviation:  Environ. Health Perspect.     Publication Date:  2001 Dec 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2001-12-18     Completed Date:  2002-02-05     Revised Date:  2009-11-18    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0330411     Medline TA:  Environ Health Perspect     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1271-3     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
Centre for Public Health Research, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia. s.tong@qut.edu.au
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Alphavirus Infections / epidemiology*,  transmission
Climate*
Disease Outbreaks*
Exanthema / epidemiology
Humans
Humidity
Incidence
Models, Theoretical
Queensland / epidemiology
Rain
Ross River virus
Temperature
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From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

Full Text
Journal Information
Journal ID (nlm-ta): Environ Health Perspect
ISSN: 0091-6765
Article Information
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Print publication date: Month: 12 Year: 2001
Volume: 109 Issue: 12
First Page: 1271 Last Page: 1273
ID: 1240510
PubMed Id: 11748035
Publisher Item Identifier: sc271_5_1835

Climate variation and incidence of Ross river virus in Cairns, Australia: a time-series analysis.
S Tong
W Hu
Centre for Public Health Research, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia. s.tong@qut.edu.au


Article Categories:
  • Research Article


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