Document Detail

Climate modelling: Northern Hemisphere circulation.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  16177779     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Air pressure at sea level during winter has decreased over the Arctic and increased in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics in recent decades, a change that has been associated with 50% of the Eurasian winter warming observed over the past 30 years, with 60% of the rainfall increase in Scotland and with 60% of the rainfall decrease in Spain. This trend is inconsistent with the simulated response to greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol changes, but it has been proposed that other climate influences--such as ozone depletion--could account for the discrepancy. Here I compare observed Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure trends with those simulated in response to all the major human and natural climate influences in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models over the past 50 years. I find that these models all underestimate the circulation trend. This inconsistency suggests that we cannot yet simulate changes in this important property of the climate system or accurately predict regional climate changes.
Nathan P Gillett
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Nature     Volume:  437     ISSN:  1476-4687     ISO Abbreviation:  Nature     Publication Date:  2005 Sep 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2005-09-22     Completed Date:  2005-10-05     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0410462     Medline TA:  Nature     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  496     Citation Subset:  IM    
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Air Movements*
Arctic Regions
Computer Simulation*
Forecasting / methods
Greenhouse Effect
Human Activities
Models, Theoretical*
Reproducibility of Results

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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