| The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study: how well does the EuroSCORE predict operative risk for Chinese population? | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 18778949 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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OBJECTIVE: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model is a widely used risk prediction algorithm for cardiac surgery in China due to lack of a local model, although its validation has never been tested. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the logistic EuroSCORE when applied in the Chinese Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Registry database, which is representative of adult cardiac surgery in China. METHODS: The logistic EuroSCORE model was applied to all patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery at 35 centres in China between January 2004 and December 2005. The entire cohort and a subgroup of patients undergoing isolated CABG were analysed. The calibration of the EuroSCORE model was assessed by comparing observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities. Discrimination was tested by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The Chinese CABG Registry Study recruited 9248 patients. There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the Chinese population and European cardiac surgical populations. For the entire cohort, the predicted mortality was 5.51% and observed mortality was 3.27%. Of the isolated CABG subset of 8120 patients, the predicted mortality was 4.21% and the observed mortality was 2.22%. The logistic EuroSCORE overpredicted observed mortality for the entire cohort and the isolated CABG subset at all risk tertiles to different degrees. The discriminative power of EuroSCORE was acceptable but not very satisfactory, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 for the entire cohort and 0.71 for the isolated CABG subset. CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE model does not accurately predict outcomes in this group of Chinese CABG patients. Therefore, caution should be exercised when using it for risk prediction in China. Creation of a new model, which accurately predicts outcomes in Chinese CABG patients, is warranted. |
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Authors:
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Zhe Zheng; Yan Li; Shiju Zhang; Shengshou Hu; |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Evaluation Studies; Journal Article; Multicenter Study Date: 2008-09-07 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery : official journal of the European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery Volume: 35 ISSN: 1873-734X ISO Abbreviation: Eur J Cardiothorac Surg Publication Date: 2009 Jan |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2008-12-22 Completed Date: 2009-11-04 Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 8804069 Medline TA: Eur J Cardiothorac Surg Country: Germany |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 54-8 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Cardiovascular Institute and Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing 100037, China. |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Adult Aged Algorithms* China / epidemiology Coronary Artery Bypass / adverse effects*, mortality Coronary Disease / mortality, surgery* Epidemiologic Methods Female Humans Male Middle Aged Prognosis Treatment Outcome |
| Comments/Corrections | |
Comment In:
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Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2009 Jan;35(1):59-61
[PMID:
19027318
]
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From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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