Document Detail

A Case Study on the Informational Efficiency of Markets: The Market for Horse Racing in Australia.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  12766448     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
This paper describes a study of the informational efficiency of the thoroughbred horse racing market in Australia. It is based on the theory of stock market efficiency which explains the process by which information becomes reflected in share prices. In this paper, the theory is applied to the thoroughbred horse racing market to determine the predictive accuracy of alternative informative sources. The results obtained from the study are consistent with the underlying theory:(i) aggregated information (as reflected in a consensus of opinions) is a more accurate prediction of success than less information (as reflected in individual opinions), and;(ii) the most recent information (as reflected in race-time betting odds, known as starting prices) has greater predictive ability than less recent information (as reflected in an earlier consensus of opinions).The study examines predictive accuracy in a gambling context, but does not consider the profitability of alternative prediction processes.
Robert Coombes; Lorelle Frazer; Ron Johnson; Jason Hockaday; Craig Otto
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Publication Detail:
Journal Detail:
Title:  Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming     Volume:  14     ISSN:  1573-3602     ISO Abbreviation:  J Gambl Stud     Publication Date:  1998  
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2003-May-26     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9425991     Medline TA:  J Gambl Stud     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  401-411     Citation Subset:  -    
Faculty of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350 Australia.
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