Document Detail

Bayesian modelling of long-term dietary intakes from multiple sources.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  19819284     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Human exposure to a specific pesticide or other chemical can occur from a combination of food and drink products. Probabilistic risk assessments are used to quantify the distribution of mean total daily exposures in the population, from the available data on residues and consumptions. We present a new statistical method for estimating this distribution, based on dietary survey data for multiple food types and residue monitoring data. The model allows for between-food correlations in both frequency and amounts of consumption. Three case studies are presented based on consumption data for UK children, considering the distribution of daily intakes of pyrimethanil, captan and chlorpyrifos aggregated over 4, 6 and 10 food types, respectively. We compared three alternative approaches, each using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty: (i) a multivariate model that explicitly includes correlation parameters; (ii) separate independent parametric models for individual food types and (iii) a single parametric model applied to intakes aggregated directly from the data. The results demonstrate the importance of accounting for correlations between foods, using model (i) or (iii), for example, but also show that model (iii) can produce very different results when the aggregated intakes distribution is bimodal. The influence of residue uncertainty is also demonstrated.
Marc C Kennedy
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2009-10-09
Journal Detail:
Title:  Food and chemical toxicology : an international journal published for the British Industrial Biological Research Association     Volume:  48     ISSN:  1873-6351     ISO Abbreviation:  Food Chem. Toxicol.     Publication Date:  2010 Jan 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-02-01     Completed Date:  2010-04-15     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8207483     Medline TA:  Food Chem Toxicol     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  250-63     Citation Subset:  IM    
Copyright Information:
Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, York YO41 1LZ, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Bayes Theorem*
Captan / analysis
Chlorpyrifos / analysis
Diet / adverse effects*,  statistics & numerical data*
Drug Residues / analysis
Fruit / chemistry
Fungicides, Industrial / analysis
Models, Statistical
Pesticide Residues / analysis
Pyrimidines / analysis
Vegetables / chemistry
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Fungicides, Industrial; 0/Pesticide Residues; 0/Pyrimidines; 133-06-2/Captan; 2921-88-2/Chlorpyrifos; 53112-28-0/pyrimethanil

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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