Document Detail

Assessment of risk of perinatal death in Jamaica.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  8072898     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Data from the Jamaican Perinatal Mortality Survey had been used to create a statistical model using logistic regression. From this a simple additive scoring system to predict perinatal death was devised and tested on the 2 cohort months of the study. The score had a theoretical range of 0-28 points, with the higher the score, the greater the likelihood of a perinatal death. For a cut-point of 7, sensitivity was 43% and specificity 84%. A cut-point of 8 resulted in 27% sensitivity and 94% specificity. Higher cut-points resulted in much reduced sensitivity but enhanced specificity (e.g. cut-point 10: 11% sensitivity, 99% specificity). However, it is likely that these estimates are optimistically high, and to achieve unbiased estimates of sensitivity and specificity the score needs to be tested on a sample of the population from which it was not derived before implementation takes place. Meanwhile, the cut-off level for implementation will depend on appropriate resources available.
R Greenwood; D Ashley
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Comparative Study; Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Paediatric and perinatal epidemiology     Volume:  8 Suppl 1     ISSN:  0269-5022     ISO Abbreviation:  Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol     Publication Date:  1994 Apr 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1994-09-29     Completed Date:  1994-09-29     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8709766     Medline TA:  Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol     Country:  ENGLAND    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  166-73     Citation Subset:  IM    
Institute of Child Health, Bristol, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Cohort Studies
Fetal Death*
Infant Mortality*
Infant, Newborn
Jamaica / epidemiology
Models, Statistical*
Mothers / classification
Pregnancy Complications
Risk Factors
Sensitivity and Specificity
Socioeconomic Factors

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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