| Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 20618912 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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*Second-generation Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have recently been developed that explicitly represent the ecological dynamics of disturbance, vertical competition for light, and succession. Here, we introduce a modified second-generation DGVM and examine how the representation of demographic processes operating at two-dimensional spatial scales not represented by these models can influence predicted community structure, and responses of ecosystems to climate change. *The key demographic processes we investigated were seed advection, seed mixing, sapling survival, competitive exclusion and plant mortality. We varied these parameters in the context of a simulated Amazon rainforest ecosystem containing seven plant functional types (PFTs) that varied along a trade-off surface between growth and the risk of starvation induced mortality. *Varying the five unconstrained parameters generated community structures ranging from monocultures to equal co-dominance of the seven PFTs. When exposed to a climate change scenario, the competing impacts of CO(2) fertilization and increasing plant mortality caused ecosystem biomass to diverge substantially between simulations, with mid-21st century biomass predictions ranging from 1.5 to 27.0 kg C m(-2). *Filtering the results using contemporary observation ranges of biomass, leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) did not substantially constrain the potential outcomes. We conclude that demographic processes represent a large source of uncertainty in DGVM predictions. |
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Authors:
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Rosie Fisher; Nate McDowell; Drew Purves; Paul Moorcroft; Stephen Sitch; Peter Cox; Chris Huntingford; Patrick Meir; F Ian Woodward |
Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Date: 2010-07-02 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: The New phytologist Volume: 187 ISSN: 1469-8137 ISO Abbreviation: New Phytol. Publication Date: 2010 Aug |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2010-07-27 Completed Date: 2010-10-28 Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 9882884 Medline TA: New Phytol Country: England |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 666-81 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA. rosieafisher@gmail.com |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Biomass Climate Change Computer Simulation Ecosystem* Models, Biological* Plant Leaves / anatomy & histology Plant Physiological Phenomena* Plants / growth & development Population Dynamics Uncertainty* |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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