Document Detail

Assessing seasonal variations and age patterns in mortality during the first year of life in Tanzania.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23247213     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Lack of birth and death registries in most of developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa led to the establishment of Demographic Surveillance Systems (DSS) sites which monitor large population cohorts within defined geographical areas. DSS collects longitudinal data on migration, births, deaths and their causes via verbal autopsies. DSS data provide an opportunity to monitor many health indicators including mortality trends. Mortality rates in Sub-Sahara Africa show seasonal patterns due to high infant and child malaria-related mortality which is influenced by seasonal features present in environmental and climatic factors. However, it is unclear whether seasonal patterns differ by age in the first few months of life. This study provides an overview of approaches to assess, capture and detect seasonality peaks and patterns in mortality using the infant mortality data from the Rufiji DSS, Tanzania. Seasonality was best captured using Bayesian negative binomial models with time and cycle dependent seasonal parameters and autoregressive temporal error terms. Seasonal patterns are similar among different age groups during infancy and timing of their mortality peaks do not differ. Seasonality in mortality rates with two peaks per year is pronounced which corresponds to rainy seasons. Understanding of these trends is important for public health preparedness.
S F Rumisha; T Smith; S Abdulla; H Masanja; P Vounatsou
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-12-11
Journal Detail:
Title:  Acta tropica     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1873-6254     ISO Abbreviation:  Acta Trop.     Publication Date:  2012 Dec 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-12-18     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0370374     Medline TA:  Acta Trop     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4051, Basel, Switzerland; National Institute for Medical Research, 2448, Ocean Road, P.O. Box 9653, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Electronic address:
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