Document Detail

Application of Bayesian techniques to model the burden of human salmonellosis attributable to U.S. food commodities at the point of processing: adaptation of a Danish model.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  21235394     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country.
Chuanfa Guo; Robert M Hoekstra; Carl M Schroeder; Sara Monteiro Pires; Kanyin Liane Ong; Emma Hartnett; Alecia Naugle; Jane Harman; Patricia Bennett; Paul Cieslak; Elaine Scallan; Bonnie Rose; Kristin G Holt; Bonnie Kissler; Evelyne Mbandi; Reza Roodsari; Frederick J Angulo; Dana Cole
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2011-01-16
Journal Detail:
Title:  Foodborne pathogens and disease     Volume:  8     ISSN:  1556-7125     ISO Abbreviation:  Foodborne Pathog. Dis.     Publication Date:  2011 Apr 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-04-01     Completed Date:  2011-07-25     Revised Date:  2013-07-02    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101120121     Medline TA:  Foodborne Pathog Dis     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  509-16     Citation Subset:  IM    
Copyright Information:
© Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
Food Safety and Inspection Service, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Bayes Theorem
Databases, Factual
Eggs / microbiology*
Food Handling*
Food Microbiology*
Meat / microbiology*
Models, Biological*
Population Surveillance
Public Health Informatics / methods
Risk Management / methods
Salmonella / isolation & purification
Salmonella Food Poisoning / epidemiology*,  microbiology,  prevention & control
Sus scrofa
United States / epidemiology

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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