| Advantages of the population-based approach to pregnancy dating demonstrated with results from 23 020 ultrasound examinations. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 21898635 Owner: NLM Status: Publisher |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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OBJECTIVE: To confirm the results from two previous evaluations of term prediction models in a third population, and to explore why biased predictions are unavoidable with sample-based models. METHODS: In a study population of 23 020 second-trimester ultrasound examinations, data were prospectively collected and registered over the period 1988-2009. Three different models for ultrasonically estimated date of delivery were applied to the measurements of fetal biparietal diameter (BPD) and femur length (FL), and the resulting term estimations were compared with the actual time of the delivery. The difference between the actual and the predicted date of delivery (the median bias) was calculated for each of the models, for three BPD/FL-measurement subgroups and for the study population as a whole. RESULTS: For the population-based model, the median bias was + 0.4 days for the BPD-based, and -0.4 days for the FL-based predictions, and the biases were stable over the inclusion ranges. The biases of the two traditional models varied with the size of the fetus at examination; median biases were -0.87 and + 2.2 days, respectively, with extremes -4.2 and + 4.8 days for the BPD-based, and + 1.72 days with range -0.8 to + 4.5 days for the FL-based predictions. The disagreement between these two methods was never less than 2 days. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the results from previous studies; median biases were negligible with term predictions from the population-based model, while those from the traditional models varied substantially. The biases, which have clinical implications, seem inevitable with the sample-based models, which, even when tentatively calibrated, will perform unsatisfactorily. Copyright © 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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Authors:
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Inger Okland; Jakob Nakling; Håkon K Gjessing; Per Grøttum; Sturla H Eik-Nes |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: JOURNAL ARTICLE Date: 2011-8-25 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Ultrasound in obstetrics & gynecology : the official journal of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology Volume: - ISSN: 1469-0705 ISO Abbreviation: - Publication Date: 2011 Aug |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2011-9-7 Completed Date: - Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 9108340 Medline TA: Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol Country: - |
Other Details:
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Languages: ENG Pagination: - Citation Subset: - |
Copyright Information:
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Copyright © 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
Affiliation:
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Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway; National Center for Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, St Olavs University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway. iok@lyse.net. |
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