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ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23407372     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients.Journal of Human Hypertension advance online publication, 14 February 2013; doi:10.1038/jhh.2013.3.
D Prieto-Merino; J Dobson; A K Gupta; C-L Chang; P S Sever; B Dahlöf; H Wedel; S Pocock; N Poulter
Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2013-2-14
Journal Detail:
Title:  Journal of human hypertension     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1476-5527     ISO Abbreviation:  J Hum Hypertens     Publication Date:  2013 Feb 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2013-2-14     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8811625     Medline TA:  J Hum Hypertens     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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