A new flexible cure rate survival model is developed where the initial number of competing causes of the event of interest (say lesions or altered cells) follow a compound negative binomial (NB) distribution. This model provides a realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the event of interest as it ...

Place-oriented analysis of movement data, i.e., recorded tracks of moving objects, includes finding places of interest in which certain types of movement events occur repeatedly and investigating the temporal distribution of event occurrences in these places and, possibly, other characteristics of the places and links between them. For this class ...

A new generalized multilinear regression model, termed the higher order partial least squares (HOPLS), is introduced with the aim to predict a tensor (multiway array) $(\underline{\bf Y})$ from a tensor $(\underline{\bf X})$ through projecting the data onto the latent space and performing regression on the corresponding latent variables. HOPLS differs ...

We present a visualization tool for the real-time analysis of interactively steered ensemble-simulation runs, and apply it to flooding simulations. Simulations are performed on-the-fly, generating large quantities of data. The user wants to make sense of the data as it is created. The tool facilitates understanding of what happens in ...

A behavioral drive directed solely at minimizing prediction error would cause an agent to seek out states of unchanging, and thus easily predictable, sensory inputs (such as a dark room). The default to an evolutionarily encoded prior to avoid such untenable behaviors is unsatisfying. We suggest an alternate information theoretic ...

A quantitative theory of reproductive decisions (Gowaty & Hubbell 2009) says that individuals use updated priors from constantly changing demographic circumstances to predict their futures to adjust actions flexibly and adaptively. Our ecological/evolutionary models of ultimate causes seem consistent with Clark's ideas and thus suggest an opportunity for a unified ...

Clark offers a powerful description of the brain as a prediction machine, which offers progress on two distinct levels. First, on an abstract conceptual level, it provides a unifying framework for perception, action, and cognition (including subdivisions such as attention, expectation, and imagination). Second, hierarchical prediction offers progress on a ...

It is often helpful to distinguish between a theory (Marr's computational level) and a specific implementation of that theory (Marr's physical level). However, in the target article, a single implementation of predictive coding is presented as if this were the theory of predictive coding itself. Other implementations of predictive coding ...

The target article focuses on the predictive coding of "what" and "where" something happened and the "where" and "what" response to make. We extend that scope by addressing the "when" aspect of perception and action. Successful interaction with the environment requires predictions of everything from millisecond-accurate motor timing to far ...

A cornerstone of the target article is that, in a predictive coding framework, attention can be modelled by weighting prediction error with a measure of precision. We argue that this is not a complete explanation, especially in the light of ERP (event-related potentials) data showing large evoked responses for frequently ...

The important roles of prediction and prior experience are well established in music research and fit well with Clark's concept of unified perception, cognition, and action arising from hierarchical, bidirectional predictive processing. However, in order to fully account for human musical intelligence, Clark needs to further consider the powerful and ...

We focus on two issues: (1) an unusual, counterintuitive prediction that quantum probability (QP) theory appears to make regarding multiple sequential judgments, and (2) the extent to which QP is an appropriate and comprehensive benchmark for assessing judgment. These issues highlight how QP theory can fall prey to the same ...

Quantum probability (QP) provides a new perspective for cognitive science. However, one must be clear about the outcome the QP model is predicting. We discuss this concern in reference to modeling the subjective probabilities given by people as opposed to modeling the choice proportions of people. These two models would ...

We introduce a nonparametric survival prediction method for right-censored data. The method generates a survival curve prediction by constructing a (weighted) Kaplan-Meier estimator using the outcomes of the K most similar training observations. Each observation has an associated set of covariates, and a metric on the covariate space is used ...

Ruxolitinib is a selective inhibitor of Janus kinase 1 and 2, which is approved to treat intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis. The population pharmacokinetics for ruxolitinib were characterized by a modeling dataset of 272 subjects from a Phase 2 and a Phase 3 study and validated by an external validation dataset ...

BACKGROUND: Information regarding acute kidney injury (AKI) in cats is limited, and there are no reliable tools to objectively assess disease severity and predict outcome. OBJECTIVES: To assess clinical signs, clinicopathologic abnormalities, etiology, and outcome of cats with AKI, and to develop models using clinical metrics and empirically derived scores ...

In the first article in this series we explored the use of linear regression to predict an outcome variable from a number of predictive factors. It assumed that the predictive factors were measured on an interval scale. However, this article shows how categorical variables can also be included in a ...

We explore the interaction between oculomotor control and language comprehension on the sentence level using two well-tested computational accounts of parsing difficulty. Previous work (Boston, Hale, Vasishth, & Kliegl, 2011) has shown that surprisal (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008) and cue-based memory retrieval (Lewis & Vasishth, 2005) are significant and complementary ...

BACKGROUND: The WSP tool has previously been proposed as a method to detect signals for adverse drug reactions utilising time-to-event data without the need for a reference population. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the tool on two well-known and two suspected adverse drug reactions ...

SUMMARY For the purpose of developing a national system for outbreak surveillance, local outbreak signals were compared in three sources of syndromic data - telephone triage of acute gastroenteritis, web queries about symptoms of gastrointestinal illness, and over-the-counter (OTC) pharmacy sales of antidiarrhoeal medication. The data sources were compared against nine known ...

Health economic models rely on data from trials to project the risk of events (e.g., death) over time beyond the span of the available data. Parametric survival analysis methods can be applied to identify an appropriate statistical model for the observed data, which can then be extrapolated to derive a ...

A method combining life cycle assessment (LCA) and real options analyses is developed to predict project environmental and financial performance over time, under market uncertainties and decision-making flexibility. The method is applied to examine alternative uses for oil sands coke, a carbonaceous byproduct of processing the unconventional petroleum found in ...

This study examines the recidivism of offenders who are considered to be highly dangerous but who, as a result of a decision of the German Federal High Court, have not been in preventive detention because it was imposed retrospectively (Group II preventive detention cases; § 66b StGB). Taking into consideration ...

BACKGROUND: In medical informatics, psychology, market research and many other fields, researchers often need to analyze and model ranking data. However, there is no statistical software that provides tools for the comprehensive analysis of ranking data. Here, we present pmr, an R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data with ...

BACKGROUND: This report provides a comprehensive analysis of transfusion errors occurring at a large teaching hospital and aims to determine key errors that are threatening transfusion safety, despite implementation of safety measures. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Errors were prospectively identified from 2005 to 2010. Error data were coded on a ...

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the ...

Statistical agencies have begun to partially synthesize public-use data for major surveys to protect the confidentiality of respondents' identities and sensitive attributes by replacing high disclosure risk and sensitive variables with multiple imputations. To date, there are few applications of synthetic data techniques to large-scale healthcare survey data. Here, we ...

Oseltamivir is a potent inhibitor of influenza neuraminidase enzymes essential for viral replication. This study aimed to investigate the impact of covariates on PK variability of oseltamivir and its active metabolite oseltamivir carboxylate (OC). Dosing history, plasma concentrations, and demographic information were pooled from 13 clinical trials providing data for ...

A new technique to predict concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in ambient air during periods of lost data has been developed and tested. This new technique is based on the relationship between ambient temperature and BaP concentration observed at individual monitoring stations over many years. The technique has been tested on ...

Climate change likely will lead to increasingly favourable environmental conditions for many parasites. However, predictions regarding parasitism's impacts often fail to account for the likely variability in host distribution and how this may alter parasite occurrence. Here, we investigate potential distributional shifts in the meningeal worm, Parelaphostrongylosis tenuis, a protostrongylid ...

A semi-mechanistic forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth) was extended to calculate δ13C in tree rings. The δ13C estimates were based on the model's existing description of carbon assimilation and canopy conductance. The model was tested in two ∼80-year-old natural stands of Abies grandis (grand fir) in northern ...

Drawing on fairness heuristic theory (Lind, 2001, 2002), it was predicted that how employees cope with an unfair event-whether they are more or less forgiving, and whether they are more or less vengeful-will depend jointly on (a) their perceptions of overall organizational justice and (b) the degree to which they ...

In recent years, in an attempt to maximize performance, machine learning approaches for Event-Related Potential (ERP) spelling have become more and more complex. In this paper, we have taken a step back as we wanted to improve performance without building an overly complex model, that cannot be used by the ...

Human carrying is simulated in this work by using a skeletal digital human model with 55 degrees of freedom (DOFs). An optimization-based approach is used to predict the carrying motion with symmetric and asymmetric loads. In this process, the model predicts joint dynamics using optimization schemes and task-based physical constraints. ...

Individuals with spinal cord injury experience a rapid loss of bone mineral below the neurological lesion. The clinical consequence of this bone loss is a high rate of fracture around regions of the knee. The ability to predict the mechanical competence of bones at this location may serve as an ...

Most modern population genetics inference methods are based on the coalescence framework. Methods that allow estimating parameters of structured populations commonly insert migration events into the genealogies. For these methods the calculation of the coalescence probability density of a genealogy requires a product over all time periods between events. Data ...

BACKGROUND: High-quality measurement instruments for assessing the neighbourhood environment are a prerequisite for identifying associations between the neighbourhood environment and a person's physical activity. The aim of this systematic review was to identify reliable and valid questionnaires assessing neighbourhood environmental attributes in the context of physical activity behaviours in children ...

This article focuses on the development of an approach for ab initio protein structure prediction (PSP) without using any earlier knowledge from similar protein structures, as fragment-based statistics or inference of secondary structures. Such an approach is called purely ab initio prediction. The article shows that well-designed multiobjective evolutionary algorithms ...

Most people anecdotally feel that the distance extending toward a cliff or slope appears shorter than the same distance extending away from it. This odd impression persists, despite the distance being equal across both conditions and humans encountering such a scenario daily in the navigation of stairs, slopes, curbs, and ...

Many chronic diseases feature recurring clinically important events. In addition, however, there often exists a random variable which is realized upon the occurrence of each event reflecting the severity of the event, a cost associated with it, or possibly a short term response indicating the effect of a therapeutic intervention. ...

In conventional survival analysis there is an underlying assumption that all study subjects are susceptible to the event. In general, this assumption does not adequately hold when investigating the time to an event other than death. Owing to genetic and/or environmental etiology, study subjects may not be susceptible to the ...

A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was whether frailty scoring can be used either separately or combined with conventional risk scores to predict survival and complications. Five hundred and thirty-five papers were found using the reported search, of which ...

The aim of this study was to analyze influences of process- and technology-related characteristics on the outcomes of coverage decisions. Using survey data on 77 decisions from 13 countries, we examined whether outcomes differ by 14 variables that describe components of decision-making processes and the technology. We analyzed the likelihood ...

OBJECTIVE: To examine the feasibility of using statistical text classification to automatically identify health information technology (HIT) incidents in the USA Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database. DESIGN: We used a subset of 570 272 incidents including 1534 HIT incidents reported to MAUDE ...

Internal validity of a risk model can be studied efficiently with bootstrapping to assess possible optimism in model performance. Assumptions of the regular bootstrap are violated when the development data are clustered. We compared alternative resampling schemes in clustered data for the estimation of optimism in model performance. A simulation study ...

In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather ...

This paper quantitatively motivates the need for active monitoring of occupational safety incident data through the use of cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts. The frequency of incidents within a subset of historical accident data is analysed. The performance of Poisson CUSUM and exponential CUSUM (time-between-events) charts is compared in an ...

OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of real-time elastography (RTE), compared with our previously proposed prediction model, in the detection of malignancy in cervical lymph nodes (LNs). METHODS: One hundred and thirty-one patients underwent ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration biopsy (ultrasound FNAB) after ultrasound and RTE evaluation. The formula of the RTE ...

BACKGROUND: Habitual gait speed (HGS) and the figure-of-8 walking test (F8WT) are measures of walking ability that have been associated with mobility outcomes and disability among older adults. Our objective was to contrast the physiologic, health, and behavioral attributes underlying performance of these two walking tests among older adults with ...

SUMMARY: Recently, several new contact prediction methods have been published. They use (i) large sets of multiple aligned sequences (ii) and assume that correlations between columns in these alignments can be the results of indirect interaction. These methods are clearly superior to earlier methods when it comes to predicting contacts ...