Labor's education and training strategy: building on false assumptions?
Subject: Labor market (Research)
Employment (Forecasts and trends)
Labor supply (Supply and demand)
Authors: Birrell, Bob
Healy, Ernest
Smith, T.Fred
Pub Date: 04/01/2008
Publication: Name: People and Place Publisher: Monash University, Centre for Population and Urban Research Audience: Academic Format: Magazine/Journal Subject: Sociology and social work Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2008 Monash University, Centre for Population and Urban Research ISSN: 1039-4788
Issue: Date: April, 2008 Source Volume: 16 Source Issue: 1
Topic: Event Code: 310 Science & research; 010 Forecasts, trends, outlooks; 600 Market information - general Canadian Subject Form: Labour market; Labour force Computer Subject: Market trend/market analysis
Product: Product Code: 9108130 Jobs & Employment; E220000 Employment NAICS Code: 92611 Administration of General Economic Programs
Geographic: Geographic Scope: Australia Geographic Code: 8AUST Australia
Accession Number: 179564707
Full Text: INTRODUCTION

The incoming Rudd Labor Government believes that skill shortages are an important component of Australia's inflationary breakout. The government's leaders have repeatedly asserted that, unlike the departed Coalition Government, Labor will attack the supply side of the inflationary equation. To this end, the government will promote education and training for skilled occupations where shortages are most evident.

The government has so far announced two key policy commitments on the training supply side. First, it will enhance the quality of school education. Second, it will open up new trainee opportunities for young people in the trades area. Under its Skilling Australia for the Future initiative, administered through the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, funds have been allocated for 450,000 new training places over four years. An initial 20,000 training places will be made available between April and June 2008 for persons wishing to undertake training to upgrade or update their qualifications in areas of skill shortage at the Certificate II, III and IV level. (1)

Until recently, the Rudd Government has been silent on what it will do to increase domestic training at the university level. This stance changed when the Minister for Education and Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Julia Gillard, addressed the Australian Financial Review higher education conference on 13 March 2006. She acknowledged that 'over the past decade, Australian higher education has barely stood still in terms of numbers, quality and output, while our competitors have surged ahead'. (2) In support of this contention, she cited various skill shortages, including doctors, teachers and engineers. However, all that was offered by way of a policy response to this situation was the announcement of a Review of Higher Education, which is to report in October 2008.

As indicated, at present, the Labor Government's emphasis is on the Vocational Education and Training (VET) sector, just like the previous Coalition Government. The former Prime Minister, John Howard, repeatedly asserted that parents, educational planners and education providers should focus on trade skills. He claimed that there was excessive emphasis on university education, which he believed was motivated by misguided status aspirations.(3) Reflecting this judgement, the Coalition only marginally increased the number of Commonwealth-subsidised university places for domestic students between 1996 and 2007.

This focus on the VET sector is curious. It has occurred in the face of evidence that we, among others, have collected which shows that the most rapid growth in employment in Australia is amongst professionals, managers and associate professionals, employees who, for the most part, need university credentials as their entry point to these occupations. This rapid growth has occurred at a time when domestic training at university level has been static, a situation that has produced chronic shortages. Such shortages have been alleviated somewhat by a massive increase in the intake of migrant professionals. (4)

This article revisits this disjuncture between labour market demand and policy response via new data on employment levels by industry and occupation over the decade 1996 to 2006. It explores the skill demands of the industries which have dominated employment growth over this decade. This inquiry shows that most of the growth in skilled occupations has been amongst those requiring university credentials. By comparison, the growth in occupations requiring trade or semi-skilled credentials has been far lower.

DATA AND APPROACH

Census data on employment by industry and occupation for 2006 was released late in 2007. The Centre for Population and Urban Research purchased this data in customised form. The Centre holds comparable data for the 1996 census. This allows a comparison of job growth by industry and occupation by location in Australia over the period 1996 to 2006. Job growth refers to the net outcome of new jobs minus any losses in the industry and occupation in question. The 2001 census data on industry proved to be incompatible with that for the 1996 and 2006 censuses, because the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) used a different methodology for determining the industry of respondents in 2001 to that used in the 1996 and 2006 censuses.(5)

JOB GROWTH BY INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA 1996 TO 2006

Table 1 shows the share of total job growth by industry group in Australia over the 1996 to 2006 period. There has been little or no growth in the main goods and commodities producing industries--agriculture, mining and manufacturing. Indeed, in the case of agriculture there has been a decline. Since these are the industries usually thought of as important employers of tradespersons, this raises the question--what is the source of the alleged shortage of tradespersons? One answer may be the construction industry, where there was a massive 45 per cent growth in employment over the decade. To explore this issue requires an analysis of the occupational makeup of changes in employment by industry. We begin with the trade issue before exploring the sources of demand for other forms of skilled labour, particularly professionals.

INDUSTRY CHANGE AND THE EMPLOYMENT OF TRADESPERSONS

Table 2 allows an investigation of the source of growth in employment of persons in trade occupations by industry. The construction industry is distinctive among industries that employ a high proportion of tradespersons. It is growing rapidly and a major share of the additional construction workforce consists of tradespersons. Table 2 indicates that some 92,338 of the total 220,540 overall growth in construction industry employment between 1996 and 2006 was for tradespersons. By contrast, employment in Australia's manufacturing industries grew by just 20,210, and only 370 of this growth comprised tradespersons.

Table 2 also shows that this increase of 92,338 tradespersons in the construction industry accounted for almost all (87.5 per cent) the total growth of 105,749 in the employment of tradespersons across all industries in Australia. This pattern is evident in each state (see Table 2). For example, in Victoria, which exhibited the largest aggregate employment growth of tradespersons in construction (26,809), there was actually a net drop in the employment of tradespersons in other industries (including a sharp drop of such employment in the state's manufacturing industry). This domination of the construction industry in trade employment growth implies that Australia is experiencing a shortage of specialist construction tradespersons rather than a generalised shortage of tradespersons.

As Table 3 indicates, there was rapid employment growth in construction employment in each state. This outcome is largely a consequence of Australia's massive property and infrastructure boom, which has placed intense pressure on the local construction capacity. As a result, the supply of construction workers is stretched in all states. In the case of the mining industry in Western Australia and Queensland, the growth in jobs for tradespersons in mining (2,093 and 1,320 respectively) is small compared with the construction industry (13,325 and 25,729 respectively). While the nationwide demand for construction workers continues, so will the difficulties of attracting such workers to the resource industries located in Western Australia and Queensland.

Trade skills utilised in the construction industry

Table 4 indicates the change in the numbers employed in each of the main trades fields over the period 1996 to 2006. It also shows the share of any growth in employment in these fields which was attributable to employment growth in construction.

There are a number of trades where employment has fallen or has remained stable over the decade 1996 to 2006, including the mechanical and fabrication engineering, automotive, printing, textile and wood trades. The big increases in employment of tradespersons have largely been in areas where the construction industry has been a crucial employer. These, of course, include those employing workers specialised in construction, notably structural construction and final finishes construction tradespersons. In addition, this and plumbing trades, where 78 per cent and 98 per cent of the growth in employment, respectively, was attributable to the growth of employment in construction. Even in horticulture, which has shown strong employment growth, 61.8 per cent of this growth was a consequence of increased employment in the construction industry.

The point of this information is not to challenge the need for additional training in the trades, but rather to identify those skills that are in demand. We should also put this need into perspective. The 105,749 increase in the number of employed tradespersons over the decade 1996 to2006 was dwarfed by the 439,000 growth in the number of employed professionals. Yet successive governments have paid much less attention to university training than to trade training. Nor is it a matter of either/or. Australia's post-school training record is poor at both the trade/technical and further education and university level. As of 2006, some 47.7 per cent of all men and women aged 18 to 20 in Australia were not engaged in education or training at the school, technical and further education (TAFE), university or any other post-school training institution. (6) In other words, there is a huge surplus of young Australians who are not in post-school training, but who should be, both for their own and their nation's longterm economic benefit.

In any case, there has been a striking increase in apprentice commencements over recent years. Commencements is that many do not complete their indentures.

It is sometimes argued that, notwithstanding the low growth in employment in some trades fields, the trades workforce is ageing and that, as a consequence, a sizeable replacement demand is imminent. However, this does not seem to be the case. For the November quarter 2007, the proportion of full-time construction trades workers who were employees and were aged 45 plus was 22.6 per cent as were 30.0 per cent of automotive and engineering trades workers. By comparison, the proportion of all employed professionals in this age group was 35.4 pr cent. (8)

SKILL NEEDS IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRIES

We now explore the sources and scale of demand for university-trained personnel. Some preliminary comments on the role of the service industries will help set the scene. The dominance of employment growth in the service industries is evident from Table 1. This shows that 71 per cent of all employment growth in Australia in the decade 1996 to 2006 occurred within the retail and wholesale, finance and insurance and property and business services industries, along with the three service industries closely linked to government, that is, government administration, education, and health, and community services (GEH).

Table 3 shows that, though the proportion varies a little from state to state, this generalisation holds for each mainland state, including Queensland and Western Australia.

There is insufficient space to explore the various reasons why the service industries dominate employment growth. Nevertheless, these reasons include the tendency for the goods-producing industries to outsource service demands to specialist financial and business service enterprises. Thus, few would be surprised at the 30.1 pre cent growth in employment in the property and business service industry for Australia between 1996 to 2006. This industry includes the fast growing areas of legal and accounting services, marketing and business management services, technical, scientific and computer services, as well as the property-based industries of real estate agencies and property operators and developers.

Australia's rapid population growth over the decade has also been an important factor in the generation of service-sector employment. This is because the provision of services is usually employment intensive and, therefore, an expansion in the population base would normally generate a parallel increase in service demands in both the public and private sectors. This is evident in the state-by-state comparisons. For example, Table 3 shows that employment in the retail and wholesale industry in Queensland grew by 72,903 between 1996 and 2006, compared with 54,081 in NSW. This is despite the much larger population of NSW relative to Queensland. The explanation is that population growth in Queensland was 19.7 per cent over the decade compared with 8.9 per cent in NSW (see Table 5).

The biggest surprise with respect to the growth in service-sector demand for workers was the role of the government-related industries. These are the GEH industries, which we have amalgamated for subsequent analysis. This industry sector was responsible for 34.7 per cent of employment growth in Australia over the 1996 to 2006 period. These industries have in common that workers employed in them are either employees of federal, state or local government agencies, or they owe their private-sector employment to funds provided by governments. For example, child care services in Australia are increasingly provided by private providers, like the ill-fated ABC Learning. The ability of these private providers to expand has depended on government subsidisation of their activities. The same point applies to most of the private providers of health services and educational services in Australia.

The reason for the rapid growth in the GEH sector is partly to do with population growth. As the number of residents increases, so does the need for health, education and other government services. However, in all states, the rate of GEH employment growth far exceeded that of population growth. This is illustrated in Table 5 by the ratio of employment growth to population growth. Employment growth is two to three times population growth, except in South Australia, where it grew at a massive 5.1 times the rate of population growth in that state.

Thus, the expansion of employment in the GEH sector is not just about keeping up with population numbers. Over the past decade, it has involved an intensification of service delivery, at least as it manifests itself in the growth in the number of administrators, teachers, doctors, nurses, welfare officers and the like, as well as a greater government role in new fields such as child care services and pre-school education. The rapid increase in the number of those employed in government administration and defence--which according to Table I grew by 119,996 to 493,484 (or 32.1 per cent) over the decade to 2006-is one indicator of this intensification process. In the case of the Commonwealth Public Service (CPS), the Business Council of Australia has recently complained that the expansion of the CPS, from 113,518 in 2000 to 155, 482 in 2007 is 'crowding out' the private sector's access to scarce skills. (9)

The GEH sector makes up a particularly striking share of job growth in the states where the rate of economic growth has been subdued (relative to Queensland and Western Australia). The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory are outliers because they are centres for government activity. Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales cannot claim this distinction. Yet, as Table 6 shows, some 41.9, 41.1 and 39.8 per cent, respectively, of the share of all employment growth over the period 1996 to 2006 in these three states is attributable to employment in the GEH sector. This compares with the more modest, but still large figure of 32.1 percent for Western Australia, 32.6 percent for Victoria and 29.1 percent for Queensland.

IMPLICATIONS OF SERVICE-INDUSTRY GROWTH FOR SKILL NEEDS

Table 7 provides the foundation for an initial examination of occupation growth by industry. It shows that the restructuring ofthe Australian economy is favouring workers with post-school credentials, particularly those with university qualifications. Some 61.4 percent of the 1.47 million growth in employment over the decade 1996 to 2006 occurred within the ranks of people who would normally possess post-school qualifications. Of this 1.47 million growth, managers and administrators accounted for nine percent, professionals 29.8 percent, associate professionals 15.5 percent and tradespersons 7.2 percent.

Even in the manufacturing sector, where the net growth in jobs was relatively small (32,204), all of this growth was attributable to increased employment of managers and administrators (18,465) and Professionals (20,103). Net growth in trades occupations in manufacturing was just 370 jobs over the Period 1996 to 2006.

Table 7 also shows that the service industries have been the main employers of additional professionals, managers and associate professionals in Australia. In the case of professionals, 90 per cent of the 438, 840 net growth in professional employment occurred within the four service occupations discussed above. More than half of this growth, or 230,932, occurred in the GEH sector alone.

The GEH sector is also a significant employer of managers and administrators and associate professionals. Over the decade 1996 to 2006, the sector absorbed 27.5 percent of the growth in employment in Australia of managers and administrators and 28.5 per cent of the growth in employment of associate professionals.

Table 8 provides a further elaboration on these employment trends, focussing just on persons classified as professionals. It indicates the extent of employment growth by broad professionals field (computing, medicine and so on ) over the decade 1996 to 2006 within each of the industries under consideration.

The largest aggregate growth was in the business field where there was an increase of 114,171 persons holding professional occupations. As might be expected, a major component of this employment growth (42,470) occurred in the Property and business services industry. There was also a large increase in the number of health Professionals (75,544) and educational professionals (67,008), almost all of whom were employed in the GEH industry sector. By contrast, the 46,290 growth in employment in the science, building and engineering professions was fairly modest.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

It is highly unlikely that these trends will abate. The Rudd Government's own electoral commitments to education and health service delivery are just one example of the many influences favouring continual job growth in services and thus of further growth in demand for university trained personnel.

Yet the Rudd Government initiatives, as they impact on post-school education, have so far followed the preceding Coalition Government's diagnosis of the skill shortage problem. Labor has focussed on the trade and to some extent the technology R&D level. As indicated, it has promised to finance some 450,000 training places over four years at the Certificate II, III and IV levels.

There has been little critical scrutiny of this training places initiative. It appears to be as much a welfare initiative as a skill initiative. The first tranche of some 20,000 training places are to be offered in 2008 to people who are marginal to the labour market--in that, despite the current jobs boom, they are still looking for work.(10) This tranche appears to follow from the Coalition Government's skill voucher program. This program sought to get unemployed and low-skilled people into the labour market by helping them gain some qualifications, even if at the semi-skilled Certificate II level.

Under the banner Skilling Australia for the Future, registered training organisations (RTOs) are invited to tender for the provision of the training places for the initial 20,000 offering. Tenderers are required to offer places for a wide range of professional, associate professional, trade and sub-trade occupations, as well as for semi-skilled occupations including sales assistants, checkout operators and cashiers and cleaners.'' The training is to cover just three months from April to June 2008, though there will be extensions in some fields in a subsequent tender. Under these circumstances, it is likely that most of the places will be offered at the semi-skilled end of the spectrum.

This program seems admirable for the purpose of helping to get the small minority of aspiring workers who can't find employment into jobs. It remains to be seen how the subsequent rollout of the 450,000 training places will work out. Perhaps the program will focus more on Certificate III or above qualifications.(12) On 26 March, the Government announced a further 50,000 places which are intended to address skill shortages in the health workforce. This initiative, like the first tranche, is confined to TAPE and VET level training.(13)

It is hard to see how this program will contribute to delivering more construction tradespersons. The problem in this area is not lack of training places. The TAFEs which provide the classroom instruction in the skilled trades are not appealing for funding to create more places, nor are the private sector RTOs. The latter have shown a capacity to grow like mushrooms whenever there is extra demand for VET training.

The main reason for shortages in the supply of traditional tradespersons is a deficiency in the number of employers willing to provide indentures for apprentices and/or of young people willing to take up and finish their indenture. All the training place initiative will do is to further subsidise training in these fields. It will save the apprentice or perhaps the employer from having to pay the circa $1200 annual fee for TAFE classroom training. The initiative will not deal with the more fundamental problem, referred to above, of high drop out rates from indentures, especially drop outs due to low wages for apprentices. (14)

INACTION ON THE HIGHER EDUCATION FRONT

In contrast to this flurry of actions regarding trade places, all we have from the Rudd Government on the much more important higher education front is the initiation of a higher education review. This may or may not lead to an expansion in university training at some unknown date. Yet, the case for such expansion--as outlined above--is already clear.

Table 9 provides further information which supports this contention. The Table details the latest (unpublished) information on the commencements at the undergraduate level at Australian universities for domestic students by major field of study between 2002 and 2006. As can be seen, there was very little increase at all in domestic commencements over this period--despite the expansion in employment at the professional, managerial and associate professional level over this time. Commencements actually fell in engineering, IT and science.

Why this inaction? There is no doubt about the extent of professional and associate professional skill shortages. A good indicator of employer judgements about skill shortage priorities is their willingness to sponsor skilled migrants under the business long-stay 457 visa category. It is a good indicator because of the cost involved in sponsoring and moving personnel to Australia under this visa. There were 55,980 finalised nominations of principal applicants in 2006-2007. The great majority were for professionals, including 6,210 computing, programming and software designers, 4,060 nurses, 3,610 general practitioners and doctors in training and over 3,000 engineers. (15)

Unlike the trade area, there are Government enforced limits to the availability of university places. Universities cannot offer Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) liable places beyond the number specified each year by the Commonwealth. A tiny minority of domestic students in the fields of medicine and law used to enrol as full-fee students. This option, too, is about to be removed by the Rudd Labor Government.

The situation is curious. There is a far greater need for additional training at the university level than there is at the vocational level. The Rudd Government has so far not indicated any willingness to pay for additional university places. Yet it is prepared to subsidise up to 450,000 vocational training places.

Perhaps the labour market myths that lay behind Coalition Government's prioritisation of trade training continue to prevail within the Labor Government administration. Perhaps it is about costs. The funds needed to provide for an additional university place are more than ten times greater than the annual cost of TAFE instruction in the trades.

Perhaps the Rudd Government, like its Coalition predecessor, intends to rely on overseas migration as a source of cheap skills acquisition in the managerial, administrative and professional areas. If this is the reason for the higher education policy vacuum, it is problematic. Firstly, the immigration solution to skills supply is an imperfect one, as the accompanying article in this issue of People and Place shows. Secondly, there is an ethical dimension to such an approach--reliance on the overseas solution ignores the primary obligation of government to provide opportunities for domestic aspirants for education, training and good jobs.

References

(1) Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), Skilling Australia for the Future: Request for Organisations to Participate in the Provision of the Productivity Places Program, 2008, p. 3

(2) J. Gillard, 'A higher education revolution: creating a productive, prosperous, modern Australia', speech to The Australian Financial Review Higher Education Conference, 13 March 2008, p. 4

(3) S. Morris, 'Too clever? Dumb question', Australian Financial Review, 8 March 2005, pp. 15-16

(4) B. Birrell, D. Edwards and I. Dobson, 'The widening gap between demand for and supply of university graduates in Australia', People and Place, vol. 15, no. 2, 2007, pp. 72-86

(5) In 1996 and 2006 the census used business name indexes as the main source of information about the industry of respondents. This in turn derived from a question asking respondents the name and address of their employer. This method of coding was not used in 2001. One consequence is that employment in the government sector appears to be undercounted in 2001. This conclusion helps explain why there appeared to be a low rate of growth in the government sector between 1996 and 2001 by comparison with that reported in the ABS Labour Force Survey yet a relatively high rate of growth between 2001 and 2006, again by comparison with the Labour Force Survey.

(6) B. Birrell and D. Edwards, 'Half of Australian youth aged 18-20 are not engaged in training', a report published in University World News, 12 November 2007

(7) Australian Vocational Education and Training Statistics, 2006, National Council for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2007, p. 8

(8) ABS Labour Force: Persons Employed Full-time by Occupation, Sub-Major Group (ANZSCO), November Quarter 2007

(9) Business Council of Australia, BCA Budget submission 2008-09, p. 25

(10) DEEWR, op. cit., p. 4

(11) ibid., p. 22

(12) DEEWR, Productivity Places Program--Job Seekers, Draft Program Guidelines, 7 March 2008, p. 6

(13) Joint Media Release, The Hon Julia Gillard MP and The Hon Nicola Roxon MP, NR08/36, 26 March 2008

(14) Department of Education, Science and Training and Australian Industry Group, A Guide to Managing the First 100 Days of an Apprenticeship, Department of Education Science and Training, 2007, p. 16

(15) Department of Immigration and Citizenship, unpublished

Public policy on skills training under the former Coalition Government prioritised trade training. The Rudd Labor Government is following suit. This priority is based on the false assumption of widespread skills shortages in the trades. Such shortages as exist are largely confined to the construction industry. By contrast, demand for university-trained professionals, particularly in Australia's service industries, has grown much more strongly. Yet, the output of Australia's domestic graduates has been static over the last decade. Skill shortages currently and for the foreseeable future will mainly lie in occupations requiring university training. There is an urgent need for public policy to reflect this situation.
Table 1: Rate and share of job growth by major industry,
Australia, 1996 to 2006

                                           1996       2006

Agriculture, foresty and finishing       323,936    285,528
Mining                                    86,117    106,327
Manufacturing                            964,570    998,259
Electricity, gas and water                58,913     70,990
Construction                             484,300    704,840
Wholesaling                              446,776    434,174
Retailing                              1,036,385  1,300,223
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants     355,199    433,413
Transport and storage                    331,895    403,377
Communications                           150,313    131,991
Finance and insurance                    296,273    346,822
Property and business services           750,190    976,297
Government administration and defence    373,488    493,484
Education                                539,907    678,275
Health and Community services            725,219    976,408
GEH subtotal (a)                       1,638,614  2,148,167
Cultural and recreeation services        178,781    200,531
Person and other services                277,893    323,845
Total                                  7,635,036  9,101,956

                                         change      Change    Share of
                                       1996-2006  1996-2006   additional
                                                  as percent  jobs
                                                   of 1996

Agriculture, foresty and finishing       -38,408      -11.9      --
Mining                                    20,210       23.5     1.4
Manufacturing                             33,689        3.5     2.3
Electricity, gas and water                12,077       20.5     0.8
Construction                             220,540       45.5    15.0
Wholesaling                              -12,602       -2.8      --
Retailing                                263,838       25.5    18.0
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants      78,214       22.0     5.3
Transport and storage                     71,482       21.5     4.9
Communications                           -18,332      -12.2      --
Finance and insurance                     50,549       17.1     3.4
Property and business services           226,107       30.1    15.4
Government administration and defence    119,996       32.1     8.2
Education                                138,368       25.6     9.4
Health and Community services            251,189       34.6    17.1
GEH subtotal (a)                         509,553       31.1    34.7
Cultural and recreeation services         21,750       12.2     1.5
Person and other services                 45,952       16.5     3.1
Total                                  1,466,920       19.2   100.0

Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets
held by CPUR
Note: (a) Government administration and defence, Education,
Health and community services combined


Table 2: Change in number of tradespersons by industry group and by
state/territory 1996 to 2006

                                             Tradespersons
                                          NSW     Vic      Qld

Agriculture, forestry and fishing        -250    -371     -407
Mining                                   -921     514    1,320
Manufacturing                          -6,144  -5,321    9,531
electricity, gas and water                193       3    1,371
Construction                           16,233  26,809   25,729
Wholesaling                            -3,817  -1,357      -63
Retailing                              -1,320    -428    3,690
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants      -90   1,467      651
Transport and storage                    -347      33      665
Communication services                 -2,926  -1,853   -1,528
Finance and insurance                    -367    -236       60
Property and business services            972     597    1,772
Government administration                -466    -986     -201
Education                                -597    -586     -285
Health and community services              23    -284      255
Cultural and recreation services          595     954      356
Personal services                       3,750   3,740    3,199
Non-classifiable economic units           836    -591      697
Not stated and inadequately described   1,465   1,721      528

Total                                   6,795  23,825  47,3401

                                                Tradespersons
                                          SA       WA     Tas     NT
Agriculture, forestry and fishing        -255     -689    -66     64
Mining                                    590    2,093   -139   -191
Manufacturing                          -1,462    3,447      8    209
electricity, gas and water                 64       22    317    -56
Construction                            7,564   13,325  1,214    185
Wholesaling                              -665     -591      5     -2
Retailing                                 680      515    -79    136
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants      139      366    125     -3
Transport and storage                    -261      235    -61     12
Communication services                   -436     -558   -156   -125
Finance and insurance                      23       29     12      5
Property and business services           -140      629    -47    100
Government administration                -200       83    -76    736
Education                                -367     -419   -300    -61
Health and community services              63      -15    -46    -49
Cultural and recreation services           13       56     31     68
Personal services                         931    1,093    269     67
Non-classifiable economic units            90      746    320     22
Not stated and inadequately described  -1,043     -524   -442    -89
Total                                   5,328   19,843    889  1,028

                                             Tradespersons
                                         ACT       Australia (a)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing        -14         -1,988
Mining                                    -5          3,240
Manufacturing                            108            370
electricity, gas and water               100          2,005
Construction                           1,332         92,338
Wholesaling                             -137         -6,630
Retailing                                 17          3,205
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants      62          2,689
Transport and storage                    -57            186
Communication services                   -74         -7,656
Finance and insurance                    -21           -495
Property and business services            -1          3,869
Government administration               -252         -1,434
Education                                -17         -2,635
Health and community services             55             -7
Cultural and recreation services           1          2,068
Personal services                        229         13,269
Non-classifiable economic units           10          2,230
Not stated and inadequately described   -488          1,125
Total                                    938        105,749

Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR.
Note: (a) includes not stated and inadequately described.


Table 3: Rate and share of job growth by major industry for selected
states 1996 to 2006

                                   New South Wales
                Net job growth/      Per cent        Share of
                    decline          growth        additional
                   (numbers)        1996-2006        jobs (%)

Agriculture             -12,613              -14          -4

Mining                   -1,323               -6           0

Manufacturing           -13,675               -4          -4

Construction             48,278               29          14

Retail and               54,081               11          16
wholesale

Government               25,708               23           7
administration
and defence

Education                40,266               23          12

Health and               71,803               30          21
community
services

GEH (a)                 137,777               26          40

Finance and              21,940               18           6
insurance

Property and             63,701               23          18
business
services

Other                    48,061                9          14

Total                   346,227               14         100

                                   Victoria
                Net job growth/  Per cent    Share of
                    decline        growth     additional
                   (numbers)     1996-2006   jobs (%)

Agriculture              -9,341        -13          -2

Mining                      629         11           0

Manufacturing           -10,196         -3          -3

Construction             58,271         15          15

Retail and               73,355         19          19
wholesale

Government               20,428          5           5
administration
and defence

Education                37,007         10          10

Health and               65,322         17          17
community
services

GEH (a)                 122,757         33          33

Finance and              13,929          4           4
insurance

Property and             64,399         17          17
business
services

Other                    62,956         17          17

Total                   376,759        100         100

                                   Queensland
                Net job growth/   Per cent    Share of
                    decline        growth    additional
                   (numbers)     1996-2006    jobs (%)

Agriculture              -9,447         -13          -2

Mining                    8,265          37           2

Manufacturing            39,357          27           9

Construction             62,178          61          15

Retail and               72,903          26          17
wholesale

Government               28,222          40           7
administration
and defence

Education                33,935          33           8

Health and               60,344          46          14
community
services

GEH(a)                  122,501          40          29

Finance and              10,458          25           2
insurance

Property and             51,748          40          12
business
services

Other                    63,172          20          15

Total                   421,135          30         100

                                   Western Australia
                Net job growth/      Per cent        Share of
                    decline            growth         additional
                   (numbers)         1996-2006       jobs (%)

Agriculture              -5,656                -15          -3

Mining                   11,672                 41           7

Manufacturing            15,740                 20           9

Construction             29,643                 54          17

Retail and               26,040                 18          15
wholesale

Government               16,460                 54           9
administration
and defence

Education                14,144                 25           8

Health and               25,631                 36          15
community
services

GEH(a)                   56,235                 36          15

Finance and               2,248                  9           1
insurance

Property and             24,352                 32          14
business
services

Other                    14,849                  9           8

Total                   175,123                 23         100

                                   South Australia
                Net job growth/      Per cent        Share of
                    decline          growth         additional
                   (numbers)        1996-2006        jobs (%)

Agriculture              -1,169               -3          -1

Mining                    2,416               68           3

Manufacturing             1,755                2           2

Construction             16,559               56          18

Retail and               17,568               16          19
wholesale

Government               10,603               42          11
administration
and defence

Education                 7,273               17           8

Health and               20,207               30          22
community
services

GEH (a)                  20,207               30          22

Finance and                 703                2           1
insurance

Property and             14,746               21          16
business
services

Other                     2,662                2           3

Total                    92,620               16         100

Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR
Note: (a) Government administration and defence, Education, Health
and community services combined


Table 4: Change in the number of employed tradespersons by trade,
Australia 1996 to 2006, and number and share attributable to changed
employment levels in the construction industry

                  Employment level all industries

  Trade area        1996      2006       Change
                                       1996-2006

Mechanical and     178,067    179,800      1,733
fabrication
engineering

Automotive         120,726    116,436     -4,290
trades
persons

Electrical and     136,240    162,418     26,178
electronics
tradespersons

Construction           540      1,823      1,283
tradespersons

Structural         122,350    161,647     39,297
construction
tradespersons

Final finishes      43,223     55,569     12,346
construction
tradespersons

Plumbers            44,066     56,649     12,583

Food                83,298     90,263      6,965
tradespersons

Skilled             64,185     72,168      7,983
agricultural
and
horticultural
workers

Printing            32,216     24,088     -8,128
tradespersons

Wood                29,804     29,002       -802
tradespersons

Hairdressers        40,162     47,878      7,716

Textile,            20,817     14,488     -6,329
clothing and
related

Miscellaneous       81,047     90,261      9,214
and other
tradespersons
and related
workers nfd (b)

Total              996,741  1,102,490    105,749
tradespersons

Trade area        Employment     Share of employment
                  change in       change (all
                  construction   trade areas due
                 industry by      to employment
                 trade areas     change in construction
                  1996-2006         industry (a)
                (total numbers)    (per cent)

Mechanical and      1,313             75.8
fabrication
engineering

Automotive            380               --
trades
persons

Electrical and     20,329             77.7
electronics
tradespersons

Construction          906             70.6
tradespersons

Structural         39,920            101.6
construction
tradespersons

Final finishes      9,457             76.6
construction
tradespersons

Plumbers           12,347             98.1

Food                  106              1.5
tradespersons

Skilled             5,074             63.6
agricultural
and
horticultural
workers

Printing               26               --
tradespersons

Wood                1,261               --
tradespersons

Hairdressers            2              0.0

Textile,               55               --
clothing and
related

Miscellaneous       1,162             12.6
and other
tradespersons
and related
workers nfd (b)

Total              92,338             87.3
tradespersons

Source: ABS, 1996 and 2006 customised datasets held by CUPR
Notes: (a) trade areas where employment levels declined between
1996 and 2006 have been omitted
(b) includes defence force tradespersons; nfd = not further
define


Table 5: Government, education and health (GEH) job growth,
population growth and ratio of population to GEH growth 1996 to 2006

                   GEH increase  Population  Ratio of GEH
                    1996-2006    increase    increase to
                    (per cent)   (per cent)   population increase

Victoria              32.3       12.1         2.7
New South Wales       26.4        8.9         3.0
Queensland            40.5       19.7         2.1
Western Australia     35.7       14.7         2.4
South Australia       27.8        5.4         5.1
Australia             31.1       11.8         2.6

source: ABS, customised industry by occupation 1996 and 2006
census datasets held by CPUR


Table 6: Share of job growth in government, education and health
industries (GEH) 1996 to 2006

                   Total GEH       Total     Per cent
                   job growth    job growth    GEH

Victoria           122,757       376,759      32.6
New South Wales    137,777       346,227      39.8
Queensland         122,501       421,135      29.1
Western Australia   56,235       175,123      32.1
South Australia     38,083        92,620      41.1
NT                   5,848         9,252      63.2
ACT                 17,779        25,520      69.7
Tasmania             9,065        21,621      41.9
Australia          509,553     1,466,920      37.7

Source: ABS, customisd 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by
CPUR


Table 7: Change in employment in skilled occupations and other
occupations between 1996 and 2006 and share of occupational growth
in government, Australia

Industry group

                                                            Skilled
                                                         occupations
                          Managers and   Professionals    Associate

                         administrators                 professionals
                               (a)

Agriculture, forestry              -297            596            917
and fishing

Mining                            2,797          4,966          2,225

Manufacturing                    18,465         20,103          1,797

electricity, gas and              2,924          4,893          1,184
water

Construction                     21,014          9,906         20,097

Wholesaling                       5,946          3,609         -1,897

Retailing                           401         10,647         31,667

Accommodation, cafes              1,417           -217         21,755
and restaurants

Transport and storage             4,907          5,183          1,989

Communication services            2,430          5,351         -7,675

Finance and insurance            10,359         20,362         28,268

Property and business            20,552        104,432         45,875
services

Government                       15,235         49,975         21,780
administration

Education                        10,580         83,759         10,302

Health and community             10,437         97,198         33,232
services

GEH                              36,252        230,932          65314

Cultural and recreation           1,858          4,344          5,621
services

Personal services                 2,297          5,260          9,127

Non classifiable                    418          8,004          2,346
economic units

Not stated                          142            469            201

Total                           131,882        438,840        228,811

GEH as per cent of                   27             53             29
additional jobs
1996-2006

Occupations' share of                 9             30             16
total growth (per
cent)

Industry group

                 Tradespersons     Total        Other     Total (b)
                                  skilled    occupations

                                occupations

Agriculture,            -1,988         -772      -10,699    -13,793
forestry and
fishing

Mining                   3,240       13,228        7,238     20,238

Manufacturing              370       40,735       -6,179     32,204

electricity,             2,005       11,006        1,229     12,079
gas and water

Construction            92,338      143,355       76,025    220,611

Wholesaling             -6,630        1,028      -14,957    -14,050

Retailing                3,205       45,920      218,353    263,863

Accommodation,           2,689       25,644       52,052     78,197
cafes and
restaurants

Transport and              186       12,265       58,544     71,254
storage

Communication           -7,656       -7,550      -10,693    -18,304
services

Finance and               -495       58,494      -11,256     50,585
insurance

Property and             3,869      174,728       49,516    227,126
business
services

Government              -1,434       85,556       35,688    120,167
administration

Education               -2,635      102,006       37,266    138,711

Health and                  -7      140,860      108,316    251,419
community
services

GEH                     -4,076      328,422      181,270    510,297

Cultural and             2,068       13,891        9,903     23,862
recreation
services

Personal                13,269       29,953       15,232     44,313
services

Non                      2,230       12,998       -1,750      9,896
classifiable
economic units

Not stated               1,125        1,937        6,405    -27,449

Total                  105,749      905,282      620,233  1,472,794

GEH as per cent             -4           36           29         35
of additional
jobs 1996-2006

Occupations'                 7           61           42        100
share of total
growth (per
cent)

Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census census detasets
held by CPUR
Notes: a Does not include farmers and farm managers
b Total includes not stated and inadequately described


Table 8: Change in employment in professional occupations and the
share of professional employment growth accounted for by the GEH
between 1996 and 2006

          Industry group               Science,    Computing    Business
                                       building                  (except
                                         and                  Computers)
                                     engineering

Agriculture, forestry and fishing          736         36         528
Mining                                   2,567        217       1,743
Manufacturing                            3,909      2,459       7,188
electricity, gas and water               2,132        720       1,505
Construction                             3,442        708       3,866
Wholesaling                               -241        903         896
Retailing                                  657      2,099       3,902
Accommodation cafes and restaurants       -138         96         989
Transport and storage                      576        737       2.321
Communication services                   1,856        950       1.524
Finance and insurance                      -37      4,705      13,863
Property and business services          15,689     20,729      42,270
Government administration                8,805      4,400      17,161
Education                                2,276      2,460       3,095
Health and community services            3,750      1,251       6,413
GEH                                     14,831      8,111      26,669
Cultural and recreation services           190        588         433
Personal services                          300        764       2,761
Non classifiable economic units           -322      2.029       3,087
Not stated                                 143        113         426
Total                                   46,290     45,964     114,171
GEH as per cent of total change           32.0       17.6        23.4

          Industry group              Medical        Other
                                     practitioners  health
                                                     (incl.
                                                     nursing)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing             0        -64
Mining                                      -17         -2
Manufacturing                               -45       -266
electricity, gas and water                   -3          5
Construction                                  0          6
Wholesaling                                 -37        181
Retailing                                   -23      2.328
Accommodation cafes and restaurants         -34       -236
Transport and storage                        22        -15
Communication services                       -2          0
Finance and insurance                       -44       -297
Property and business services             -126      2,284
Government administration                  -178      2,530
Education                                   -16        498
Health and community services            11,530     57,519
GEH                                      11,336     60,547
Cultural and recreation services            -11        -29
Personal services                           -11        -23
Non classifiable economic units              -5         82
Not stated                                  -87        130
Total                                    10,913     64,631
GEH as per cent of total change           103.9       93.7

          Industry group              School     Other      Social
                                     teachers  education    welfare

Agriculture, forestry and fishing        -124        -70        -41
Mining                                     -9         38         18
Manufacturing                             -35        139         18
electricity, gas and water                 -3         84          5
Construction                              -16         98         88
Wholesaling                                19         76         -9
Retailing                                -209          1        -45
Accommodation cafes and restaurants      -314       -843         57
Transport and storage                      23        217         79
Communication services                    -15         40        -16
Finance and insurance                     -45         60         59
Property and business services         -1,528        848     1,0112
Government administration              -1,283        964      8,485
Education                              57,663     12,663      1,719
Health and community services            -647        309     15,030
GEH                                    55,733     13,936     25,234
Cultural and recreation services          -48        -82         -8
Personal services                        -414       -938      1,220
Non classifiable economic units            69        337        216
Not stated                                 23        -40        -18
Total                                  53,107     13,901    27,8735
GEH as per cent of total change         104.9      100.3       90.5

          Industry group               Other       Other
                                       social  professional  Total

Agriculture, forestry and fishing        63          -468     596
Mining                                5,082           244   4,966
Manufacturing                         5,082         1,654  20,103
electricity, gas and water              222           226   4,893
Construction                          1,110           604   9,906
Wholesaling                           1,807            14   3,609
Retailing                             1,633           304  10,647
Accommodation cafes and restaurants     411          -205    -217
Transport and storage                   391           832   5,183
Communication services                  778           236   5,351
Finance and insurance                 1,131           967  20,362
Property and business services        2,989            66 104,432
Government administration             6,135         2,956  49,975
Education                             1,238         2,163  83,759
Health and community services         1,456           587  97,198
GEH                                   8,829         5,706 230,932
Cultural and recreation services      3,644          -333   4,344
Personal services                     1,563            38   5,260
Non classifiable economic units       2,127           384   8,004
Not stated                             -118          -103     469
Total                                 1,824        10,166 438,840
GEH as per cent of total change        17.0          56.1    52.6

Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR


Table 9: Commencing domestic undergraduate students, Australia,
2002 to 2006 by broad field of education

                   2002     2003     2004     2005     2006

Sciences         15,692   15,657   16,032   15,796   15,471
IT               10,042    8,609    7,129    6,254    5,508
Engineering      10,902   10,699   10,436   10,531   10,888
Architecture      3,589    3,674    3,795    4,294    4,992
Ag/Env            4,783    4,737    4,718    3,695    3,559
Health           21,612   20,860   21,635   24,687   27,520
Education        20,890   18,579   19,032   20,599   20,747
Mgt & Commerce   31,491   29,940   29,923   31,881   32,400
Soc & Cult       46,592   43,066   41,578   46,006   47,291
Creative Arts    14,676   14,219   14,316   15,350   16,744
Food/Hosp.           36        1        1       55       36
Mixed             1,607    1,731    1,877    1,761    1,761
Total           181,912  171,772  170,472  180,909  186,917

                    Growth/decline (number)  Growth (per cent)

Sciences                           -221               -1.4
IT                               -4,534              -45.2
Engineering                         -14               -0.1
Architecture                      1,403               39.1
Ag/Env                           -1,224              -25.6
Health                            5,908               27.3
Education                          -143               -0.7
Mgt & Commerce                      909                2.9
Soc & Cult                          699                1.5
Creative Arts                     2,068               14.1
Food/Hosp.                            0                0.0
Mixed                               154                9.6
Total                             5,005                2.8

Source: Department of Employment, Science and Training, Higher
education student statistics collection, 2002 to 2006
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