Labor's education and training strategy: building on false assumptions?
Employment (Forecasts and trends)
Labor supply (Supply and demand)
|Publication:||Name: People and Place Publisher: Monash University, Centre for Population and Urban Research Audience: Academic Format: Magazine/Journal Subject: Sociology and social work Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2008 Monash University, Centre for Population and Urban Research ISSN: 1039-4788|
|Issue:||Date: April, 2008 Source Volume: 16 Source Issue: 1|
|Topic:||Event Code: 310 Science & research; 010 Forecasts, trends, outlooks; 600 Market information - general Canadian Subject Form: Labour market; Labour force Computer Subject: Market trend/market analysis|
|Product:||Product Code: 9108130 Jobs & Employment; E220000 Employment NAICS Code: 92611 Administration of General Economic Programs|
|Geographic:||Geographic Scope: Australia Geographic Code: 8AUST Australia|
The incoming Rudd Labor Government believes that skill shortages are an important component of Australia's inflationary breakout. The government's leaders have repeatedly asserted that, unlike the departed Coalition Government, Labor will attack the supply side of the inflationary equation. To this end, the government will promote education and training for skilled occupations where shortages are most evident.
The government has so far announced two key policy commitments on the training supply side. First, it will enhance the quality of school education. Second, it will open up new trainee opportunities for young people in the trades area. Under its Skilling Australia for the Future initiative, administered through the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, funds have been allocated for 450,000 new training places over four years. An initial 20,000 training places will be made available between April and June 2008 for persons wishing to undertake training to upgrade or update their qualifications in areas of skill shortage at the Certificate II, III and IV level. (1)
Until recently, the Rudd Government has been silent on what it will do to increase domestic training at the university level. This stance changed when the Minister for Education and Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Julia Gillard, addressed the Australian Financial Review higher education conference on 13 March 2006. She acknowledged that 'over the past decade, Australian higher education has barely stood still in terms of numbers, quality and output, while our competitors have surged ahead'. (2) In support of this contention, she cited various skill shortages, including doctors, teachers and engineers. However, all that was offered by way of a policy response to this situation was the announcement of a Review of Higher Education, which is to report in October 2008.
As indicated, at present, the Labor Government's emphasis is on the Vocational Education and Training (VET) sector, just like the previous Coalition Government. The former Prime Minister, John Howard, repeatedly asserted that parents, educational planners and education providers should focus on trade skills. He claimed that there was excessive emphasis on university education, which he believed was motivated by misguided status aspirations.(3) Reflecting this judgement, the Coalition only marginally increased the number of Commonwealth-subsidised university places for domestic students between 1996 and 2007.
This focus on the VET sector is curious. It has occurred in the face of evidence that we, among others, have collected which shows that the most rapid growth in employment in Australia is amongst professionals, managers and associate professionals, employees who, for the most part, need university credentials as their entry point to these occupations. This rapid growth has occurred at a time when domestic training at university level has been static, a situation that has produced chronic shortages. Such shortages have been alleviated somewhat by a massive increase in the intake of migrant professionals. (4)
This article revisits this disjuncture between labour market demand and policy response via new data on employment levels by industry and occupation over the decade 1996 to 2006. It explores the skill demands of the industries which have dominated employment growth over this decade. This inquiry shows that most of the growth in skilled occupations has been amongst those requiring university credentials. By comparison, the growth in occupations requiring trade or semi-skilled credentials has been far lower.
DATA AND APPROACH
Census data on employment by industry and occupation for 2006 was released late in 2007. The Centre for Population and Urban Research purchased this data in customised form. The Centre holds comparable data for the 1996 census. This allows a comparison of job growth by industry and occupation by location in Australia over the period 1996 to 2006. Job growth refers to the net outcome of new jobs minus any losses in the industry and occupation in question. The 2001 census data on industry proved to be incompatible with that for the 1996 and 2006 censuses, because the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) used a different methodology for determining the industry of respondents in 2001 to that used in the 1996 and 2006 censuses.(5)
JOB GROWTH BY INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA 1996 TO 2006
INDUSTRY CHANGE AND THE EMPLOYMENT OF TRADESPERSONS
Table 2 allows an investigation of the source of growth in employment of persons in trade occupations by industry. The construction industry is distinctive among industries that employ a high proportion of tradespersons. It is growing rapidly and a major share of the additional construction workforce consists of tradespersons. Table 2 indicates that some 92,338 of the total 220,540 overall growth in construction industry employment between 1996 and 2006 was for tradespersons. By contrast, employment in Australia's manufacturing industries grew by just 20,210, and only 370 of this growth comprised tradespersons.
Table 2 also shows that this increase of 92,338 tradespersons in the construction industry accounted for almost all (87.5 per cent) the total growth of 105,749 in the employment of tradespersons across all industries in Australia. This pattern is evident in each state (see Table 2). For example, in Victoria, which exhibited the largest aggregate employment growth of tradespersons in construction (26,809), there was actually a net drop in the employment of tradespersons in other industries (including a sharp drop of such employment in the state's manufacturing industry). This domination of the construction industry in trade employment growth implies that Australia is experiencing a shortage of specialist construction tradespersons rather than a generalised shortage of tradespersons.
As Table 3 indicates, there was rapid employment growth in construction employment in each state. This outcome is largely a consequence of Australia's massive property and infrastructure boom, which has placed intense pressure on the local construction capacity. As a result, the supply of construction workers is stretched in all states. In the case of the mining industry in Western Australia and Queensland, the growth in jobs for tradespersons in mining (2,093 and 1,320 respectively) is small compared with the construction industry (13,325 and 25,729 respectively). While the nationwide demand for construction workers continues, so will the difficulties of attracting such workers to the resource industries located in Western Australia and Queensland.
Trade skills utilised in the construction industry
Table 4 indicates the change in the numbers employed in each of the main trades fields over the period 1996 to 2006. It also shows the share of any growth in employment in these fields which was attributable to employment growth in construction.
There are a number of trades where employment has fallen or has remained stable over the decade 1996 to 2006, including the mechanical and fabrication engineering, automotive, printing, textile and wood trades. The big increases in employment of tradespersons have largely been in areas where the construction industry has been a crucial employer. These, of course, include those employing workers specialised in construction, notably structural construction and final finishes construction tradespersons. In addition, this and plumbing trades, where 78 per cent and 98 per cent of the growth in employment, respectively, was attributable to the growth of employment in construction. Even in horticulture, which has shown strong employment growth, 61.8 per cent of this growth was a consequence of increased employment in the construction industry.
The point of this information is not to challenge the need for additional training in the trades, but rather to identify those skills that are in demand. We should also put this need into perspective. The 105,749 increase in the number of employed tradespersons over the decade 1996 to2006 was dwarfed by the 439,000 growth in the number of employed professionals. Yet successive governments have paid much less attention to university training than to trade training. Nor is it a matter of either/or. Australia's post-school training record is poor at both the trade/technical and further education and university level. As of 2006, some 47.7 per cent of all men and women aged 18 to 20 in Australia were not engaged in education or training at the school, technical and further education (TAFE), university or any other post-school training institution. (6) In other words, there is a huge surplus of young Australians who are not in post-school training, but who should be, both for their own and their nation's longterm economic benefit.
In any case, there has been a striking increase in apprentice commencements over recent years. Commencements is that many do not complete their indentures.
It is sometimes argued that, notwithstanding the low growth in employment in some trades fields, the trades workforce is ageing and that, as a consequence, a sizeable replacement demand is imminent. However, this does not seem to be the case. For the November quarter 2007, the proportion of full-time construction trades workers who were employees and were aged 45 plus was 22.6 per cent as were 30.0 per cent of automotive and engineering trades workers. By comparison, the proportion of all employed professionals in this age group was 35.4 pr cent. (8)
SKILL NEEDS IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRIES
We now explore the sources and scale of demand for university-trained personnel. Some preliminary comments on the role of the service industries will help set the scene. The dominance of employment growth in the service industries is evident from Table 1. This shows that 71 per cent of all employment growth in Australia in the decade 1996 to 2006 occurred within the retail and wholesale, finance and insurance and property and business services industries, along with the three service industries closely linked to government, that is, government administration, education, and health, and community services (GEH).
Table 3 shows that, though the proportion varies a little from state to state, this generalisation holds for each mainland state, including Queensland and Western Australia.
There is insufficient space to explore the various reasons why the service industries dominate employment growth. Nevertheless, these reasons include the tendency for the goods-producing industries to outsource service demands to specialist financial and business service enterprises. Thus, few would be surprised at the 30.1 pre cent growth in employment in the property and business service industry for Australia between 1996 to 2006. This industry includes the fast growing areas of legal and accounting services, marketing and business management services, technical, scientific and computer services, as well as the property-based industries of real estate agencies and property operators and developers.
Australia's rapid population growth over the decade has also been an important factor in the generation of service-sector employment. This is because the provision of services is usually employment intensive and, therefore, an expansion in the population base would normally generate a parallel increase in service demands in both the public and private sectors. This is evident in the state-by-state comparisons. For example, Table 3 shows that employment in the retail and wholesale industry in Queensland grew by 72,903 between 1996 and 2006, compared with 54,081 in NSW. This is despite the much larger population of NSW relative to Queensland. The explanation is that population growth in Queensland was 19.7 per cent over the decade compared with 8.9 per cent in NSW (see Table 5).
The biggest surprise with respect to the growth in service-sector demand for workers was the role of the government-related industries. These are the GEH industries, which we have amalgamated for subsequent analysis. This industry sector was responsible for 34.7 per cent of employment growth in Australia over the 1996 to 2006 period. These industries have in common that workers employed in them are either employees of federal, state or local government agencies, or they owe their private-sector employment to funds provided by governments. For example, child care services in Australia are increasingly provided by private providers, like the ill-fated ABC Learning. The ability of these private providers to expand has depended on government subsidisation of their activities. The same point applies to most of the private providers of health services and educational services in Australia.
The reason for the rapid growth in the GEH sector is partly to do with population growth. As the number of residents increases, so does the need for health, education and other government services. However, in all states, the rate of GEH employment growth far exceeded that of population growth. This is illustrated in Table 5 by the ratio of employment growth to population growth. Employment growth is two to three times population growth, except in South Australia, where it grew at a massive 5.1 times the rate of population growth in that state.
Thus, the expansion of employment in the GEH sector is not just about keeping up with population numbers. Over the past decade, it has involved an intensification of service delivery, at least as it manifests itself in the growth in the number of administrators, teachers, doctors, nurses, welfare officers and the like, as well as a greater government role in new fields such as child care services and pre-school education. The rapid increase in the number of those employed in government administration and defence--which according to Table I grew by 119,996 to 493,484 (or 32.1 per cent) over the decade to 2006-is one indicator of this intensification process. In the case of the Commonwealth Public Service (CPS), the Business Council of Australia has recently complained that the expansion of the CPS, from 113,518 in 2000 to 155, 482 in 2007 is 'crowding out' the private sector's access to scarce skills. (9)
The GEH sector makes up a particularly striking share of job growth in the states where the rate of economic growth has been subdued (relative to Queensland and Western Australia). The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory are outliers because they are centres for government activity. Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales cannot claim this distinction. Yet, as Table 6 shows, some 41.9, 41.1 and 39.8 per cent, respectively, of the share of all employment growth over the period 1996 to 2006 in these three states is attributable to employment in the GEH sector. This compares with the more modest, but still large figure of 32.1 percent for Western Australia, 32.6 percent for Victoria and 29.1 percent for Queensland.
IMPLICATIONS OF SERVICE-INDUSTRY GROWTH FOR SKILL NEEDS
Table 7 provides the foundation for an initial examination of occupation growth by industry. It shows that the restructuring ofthe Australian economy is favouring workers with post-school credentials, particularly those with university qualifications. Some 61.4 percent of the 1.47 million growth in employment over the decade 1996 to 2006 occurred within the ranks of people who would normally possess post-school qualifications. Of this 1.47 million growth, managers and administrators accounted for nine percent, professionals 29.8 percent, associate professionals 15.5 percent and tradespersons 7.2 percent.
Even in the manufacturing sector, where the net growth in jobs was relatively small (32,204), all of this growth was attributable to increased employment of managers and administrators (18,465) and Professionals (20,103). Net growth in trades occupations in manufacturing was just 370 jobs over the Period 1996 to 2006.
Table 7 also shows that the service industries have been the main employers of additional professionals, managers and associate professionals in Australia. In the case of professionals, 90 per cent of the 438, 840 net growth in professional employment occurred within the four service occupations discussed above. More than half of this growth, or 230,932, occurred in the GEH sector alone.
The GEH sector is also a significant employer of managers and administrators and associate professionals. Over the decade 1996 to 2006, the sector absorbed 27.5 percent of the growth in employment in Australia of managers and administrators and 28.5 per cent of the growth in employment of associate professionals.
Table 8 provides a further elaboration on these employment trends, focussing just on persons classified as professionals. It indicates the extent of employment growth by broad professionals field (computing, medicine and so on ) over the decade 1996 to 2006 within each of the industries under consideration.
The largest aggregate growth was in the business field where there was an increase of 114,171 persons holding professional occupations. As might be expected, a major component of this employment growth (42,470) occurred in the Property and business services industry. There was also a large increase in the number of health Professionals (75,544) and educational professionals (67,008), almost all of whom were employed in the GEH industry sector. By contrast, the 46,290 growth in employment in the science, building and engineering professions was fairly modest.
It is highly unlikely that these trends will abate. The Rudd Government's own electoral commitments to education and health service delivery are just one example of the many influences favouring continual job growth in services and thus of further growth in demand for university trained personnel.
Yet the Rudd Government initiatives, as they impact on post-school education, have so far followed the preceding Coalition Government's diagnosis of the skill shortage problem. Labor has focussed on the trade and to some extent the technology R&D level. As indicated, it has promised to finance some 450,000 training places over four years at the Certificate II, III and IV levels.
There has been little critical scrutiny of this training places initiative. It appears to be as much a welfare initiative as a skill initiative. The first tranche of some 20,000 training places are to be offered in 2008 to people who are marginal to the labour market--in that, despite the current jobs boom, they are still looking for work.(10) This tranche appears to follow from the Coalition Government's skill voucher program. This program sought to get unemployed and low-skilled people into the labour market by helping them gain some qualifications, even if at the semi-skilled Certificate II level.
Under the banner Skilling Australia for the Future, registered training organisations (RTOs) are invited to tender for the provision of the training places for the initial 20,000 offering. Tenderers are required to offer places for a wide range of professional, associate professional, trade and sub-trade occupations, as well as for semi-skilled occupations including sales assistants, checkout operators and cashiers and cleaners.'' The training is to cover just three months from April to June 2008, though there will be extensions in some fields in a subsequent tender. Under these circumstances, it is likely that most of the places will be offered at the semi-skilled end of the spectrum.
This program seems admirable for the purpose of helping to get the small minority of aspiring workers who can't find employment into jobs. It remains to be seen how the subsequent rollout of the 450,000 training places will work out. Perhaps the program will focus more on Certificate III or above qualifications.(12) On 26 March, the Government announced a further 50,000 places which are intended to address skill shortages in the health workforce. This initiative, like the first tranche, is confined to TAPE and VET level training.(13)
It is hard to see how this program will contribute to delivering more construction tradespersons. The problem in this area is not lack of training places. The TAFEs which provide the classroom instruction in the skilled trades are not appealing for funding to create more places, nor are the private sector RTOs. The latter have shown a capacity to grow like mushrooms whenever there is extra demand for VET training.
The main reason for shortages in the supply of traditional tradespersons is a deficiency in the number of employers willing to provide indentures for apprentices and/or of young people willing to take up and finish their indenture. All the training place initiative will do is to further subsidise training in these fields. It will save the apprentice or perhaps the employer from having to pay the circa $1200 annual fee for TAFE classroom training. The initiative will not deal with the more fundamental problem, referred to above, of high drop out rates from indentures, especially drop outs due to low wages for apprentices. (14)
INACTION ON THE HIGHER EDUCATION FRONT
In contrast to this flurry of actions regarding trade places, all we have from the Rudd Government on the much more important higher education front is the initiation of a higher education review. This may or may not lead to an expansion in university training at some unknown date. Yet, the case for such expansion--as outlined above--is already clear.
Table 9 provides further information which supports this contention. The Table details the latest (unpublished) information on the commencements at the undergraduate level at Australian universities for domestic students by major field of study between 2002 and 2006. As can be seen, there was very little increase at all in domestic commencements over this period--despite the expansion in employment at the professional, managerial and associate professional level over this time. Commencements actually fell in engineering, IT and science.
Why this inaction? There is no doubt about the extent of professional and associate professional skill shortages. A good indicator of employer judgements about skill shortage priorities is their willingness to sponsor skilled migrants under the business long-stay 457 visa category. It is a good indicator because of the cost involved in sponsoring and moving personnel to Australia under this visa. There were 55,980 finalised nominations of principal applicants in 2006-2007. The great majority were for professionals, including 6,210 computing, programming and software designers, 4,060 nurses, 3,610 general practitioners and doctors in training and over 3,000 engineers. (15)
Unlike the trade area, there are Government enforced limits to the availability of university places. Universities cannot offer Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) liable places beyond the number specified each year by the Commonwealth. A tiny minority of domestic students in the fields of medicine and law used to enrol as full-fee students. This option, too, is about to be removed by the Rudd Labor Government.
The situation is curious. There is a far greater need for additional training at the university level than there is at the vocational level. The Rudd Government has so far not indicated any willingness to pay for additional university places. Yet it is prepared to subsidise up to 450,000 vocational training places.
Perhaps the labour market myths that lay behind Coalition Government's prioritisation of trade training continue to prevail within the Labor Government administration. Perhaps it is about costs. The funds needed to provide for an additional university place are more than ten times greater than the annual cost of TAFE instruction in the trades.
Perhaps the Rudd Government, like its Coalition predecessor, intends to rely on overseas migration as a source of cheap skills acquisition in the managerial, administrative and professional areas. If this is the reason for the higher education policy vacuum, it is problematic. Firstly, the immigration solution to skills supply is an imperfect one, as the accompanying article in this issue of People and Place shows. Secondly, there is an ethical dimension to such an approach--reliance on the overseas solution ignores the primary obligation of government to provide opportunities for domestic aspirants for education, training and good jobs.
(1) Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), Skilling Australia for the Future: Request for Organisations to Participate in the Provision of the Productivity Places Program, 2008, p. 3
(2) J. Gillard, 'A higher education revolution: creating a productive, prosperous, modern Australia', speech to The Australian Financial Review Higher Education Conference, 13 March 2008, p. 4
(3) S. Morris, 'Too clever? Dumb question', Australian Financial Review, 8 March 2005, pp. 15-16
(4) B. Birrell, D. Edwards and I. Dobson, 'The widening gap between demand for and supply of university graduates in Australia', People and Place, vol. 15, no. 2, 2007, pp. 72-86
(5) In 1996 and 2006 the census used business name indexes as the main source of information about the industry of respondents. This in turn derived from a question asking respondents the name and address of their employer. This method of coding was not used in 2001. One consequence is that employment in the government sector appears to be undercounted in 2001. This conclusion helps explain why there appeared to be a low rate of growth in the government sector between 1996 and 2001 by comparison with that reported in the ABS Labour Force Survey yet a relatively high rate of growth between 2001 and 2006, again by comparison with the Labour Force Survey.
(6) B. Birrell and D. Edwards, 'Half of Australian youth aged 18-20 are not engaged in training', a report published in University World News, 12 November 2007
(7) Australian Vocational Education and Training Statistics, 2006, National Council for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2007, p. 8
(8) ABS Labour Force: Persons Employed Full-time by Occupation, Sub-Major Group (ANZSCO), November Quarter 2007
(9) Business Council of Australia, BCA Budget submission 2008-09, p. 25
(10) DEEWR, op. cit., p. 4
(11) ibid., p. 22
(12) DEEWR, Productivity Places Program--Job Seekers, Draft Program Guidelines, 7 March 2008, p. 6
(13) Joint Media Release, The Hon Julia Gillard MP and The Hon Nicola Roxon MP, NR08/36, 26 March 2008
(14) Department of Education, Science and Training and Australian Industry Group, A Guide to Managing the First 100 Days of an Apprenticeship, Department of Education Science and Training, 2007, p. 16
(15) Department of Immigration and Citizenship, unpublished
Public policy on skills training under the former Coalition Government prioritised trade training. The Rudd Labor Government is following suit. This priority is based on the false assumption of widespread skills shortages in the trades. Such shortages as exist are largely confined to the construction industry. By contrast, demand for university-trained professionals, particularly in Australia's service industries, has grown much more strongly. Yet, the output of Australia's domestic graduates has been static over the last decade. Skill shortages currently and for the foreseeable future will mainly lie in occupations requiring university training. There is an urgent need for public policy to reflect this situation.
Table 1: Rate and share of job growth by major industry, Australia, 1996 to 2006 1996 2006 Agriculture, foresty and finishing 323,936 285,528 Mining 86,117 106,327 Manufacturing 964,570 998,259 Electricity, gas and water 58,913 70,990 Construction 484,300 704,840 Wholesaling 446,776 434,174 Retailing 1,036,385 1,300,223 Accommodation, cafes and restaurants 355,199 433,413 Transport and storage 331,895 403,377 Communications 150,313 131,991 Finance and insurance 296,273 346,822 Property and business services 750,190 976,297 Government administration and defence 373,488 493,484 Education 539,907 678,275 Health and Community services 725,219 976,408 GEH subtotal (a) 1,638,614 2,148,167 Cultural and recreeation services 178,781 200,531 Person and other services 277,893 323,845 Total 7,635,036 9,101,956 change Change Share of 1996-2006 1996-2006 additional as percent jobs of 1996 Agriculture, foresty and finishing -38,408 -11.9 -- Mining 20,210 23.5 1.4 Manufacturing 33,689 3.5 2.3 Electricity, gas and water 12,077 20.5 0.8 Construction 220,540 45.5 15.0 Wholesaling -12,602 -2.8 -- Retailing 263,838 25.5 18.0 Accommodation, cafes and restaurants 78,214 22.0 5.3 Transport and storage 71,482 21.5 4.9 Communications -18,332 -12.2 -- Finance and insurance 50,549 17.1 3.4 Property and business services 226,107 30.1 15.4 Government administration and defence 119,996 32.1 8.2 Education 138,368 25.6 9.4 Health and Community services 251,189 34.6 17.1 GEH subtotal (a) 509,553 31.1 34.7 Cultural and recreeation services 21,750 12.2 1.5 Person and other services 45,952 16.5 3.1 Total 1,466,920 19.2 100.0 Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR Note: (a) Government administration and defence, Education, Health and community services combined
Table 2: Change in number of tradespersons by industry group and by state/territory 1996 to 2006 Tradespersons NSW Vic Qld Agriculture, forestry and fishing -250 -371 -407 Mining -921 514 1,320 Manufacturing -6,144 -5,321 9,531 electricity, gas and water 193 3 1,371 Construction 16,233 26,809 25,729 Wholesaling -3,817 -1,357 -63 Retailing -1,320 -428 3,690 Accommodation, cafes and restaurants -90 1,467 651 Transport and storage -347 33 665 Communication services -2,926 -1,853 -1,528 Finance and insurance -367 -236 60 Property and business services 972 597 1,772 Government administration -466 -986 -201 Education -597 -586 -285 Health and community services 23 -284 255 Cultural and recreation services 595 954 356 Personal services 3,750 3,740 3,199 Non-classifiable economic units 836 -591 697 Not stated and inadequately described 1,465 1,721 528 Total 6,795 23,825 47,3401 Tradespersons SA WA Tas NT Agriculture, forestry and fishing -255 -689 -66 64 Mining 590 2,093 -139 -191 Manufacturing -1,462 3,447 8 209 electricity, gas and water 64 22 317 -56 Construction 7,564 13,325 1,214 185 Wholesaling -665 -591 5 -2 Retailing 680 515 -79 136 Accommodation, cafes and restaurants 139 366 125 -3 Transport and storage -261 235 -61 12 Communication services -436 -558 -156 -125 Finance and insurance 23 29 12 5 Property and business services -140 629 -47 100 Government administration -200 83 -76 736 Education -367 -419 -300 -61 Health and community services 63 -15 -46 -49 Cultural and recreation services 13 56 31 68 Personal services 931 1,093 269 67 Non-classifiable economic units 90 746 320 22 Not stated and inadequately described -1,043 -524 -442 -89 Total 5,328 19,843 889 1,028 Tradespersons ACT Australia (a) Agriculture, forestry and fishing -14 -1,988 Mining -5 3,240 Manufacturing 108 370 electricity, gas and water 100 2,005 Construction 1,332 92,338 Wholesaling -137 -6,630 Retailing 17 3,205 Accommodation, cafes and restaurants 62 2,689 Transport and storage -57 186 Communication services -74 -7,656 Finance and insurance -21 -495 Property and business services -1 3,869 Government administration -252 -1,434 Education -17 -2,635 Health and community services 55 -7 Cultural and recreation services 1 2,068 Personal services 229 13,269 Non-classifiable economic units 10 2,230 Not stated and inadequately described -488 1,125 Total 938 105,749 Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR. Note: (a) includes not stated and inadequately described.
Table 3: Rate and share of job growth by major industry for selected states 1996 to 2006 New South Wales Net job growth/ Per cent Share of decline growth additional (numbers) 1996-2006 jobs (%) Agriculture -12,613 -14 -4 Mining -1,323 -6 0 Manufacturing -13,675 -4 -4 Construction 48,278 29 14 Retail and 54,081 11 16 wholesale Government 25,708 23 7 administration and defence Education 40,266 23 12 Health and 71,803 30 21 community services GEH (a) 137,777 26 40 Finance and 21,940 18 6 insurance Property and 63,701 23 18 business services Other 48,061 9 14 Total 346,227 14 100 Victoria Net job growth/ Per cent Share of decline growth additional (numbers) 1996-2006 jobs (%) Agriculture -9,341 -13 -2 Mining 629 11 0 Manufacturing -10,196 -3 -3 Construction 58,271 15 15 Retail and 73,355 19 19 wholesale Government 20,428 5 5 administration and defence Education 37,007 10 10 Health and 65,322 17 17 community services GEH (a) 122,757 33 33 Finance and 13,929 4 4 insurance Property and 64,399 17 17 business services Other 62,956 17 17 Total 376,759 100 100 Queensland Net job growth/ Per cent Share of decline growth additional (numbers) 1996-2006 jobs (%) Agriculture -9,447 -13 -2 Mining 8,265 37 2 Manufacturing 39,357 27 9 Construction 62,178 61 15 Retail and 72,903 26 17 wholesale Government 28,222 40 7 administration and defence Education 33,935 33 8 Health and 60,344 46 14 community services GEH(a) 122,501 40 29 Finance and 10,458 25 2 insurance Property and 51,748 40 12 business services Other 63,172 20 15 Total 421,135 30 100 Western Australia Net job growth/ Per cent Share of decline growth additional (numbers) 1996-2006 jobs (%) Agriculture -5,656 -15 -3 Mining 11,672 41 7 Manufacturing 15,740 20 9 Construction 29,643 54 17 Retail and 26,040 18 15 wholesale Government 16,460 54 9 administration and defence Education 14,144 25 8 Health and 25,631 36 15 community services GEH(a) 56,235 36 15 Finance and 2,248 9 1 insurance Property and 24,352 32 14 business services Other 14,849 9 8 Total 175,123 23 100 South Australia Net job growth/ Per cent Share of decline growth additional (numbers) 1996-2006 jobs (%) Agriculture -1,169 -3 -1 Mining 2,416 68 3 Manufacturing 1,755 2 2 Construction 16,559 56 18 Retail and 17,568 16 19 wholesale Government 10,603 42 11 administration and defence Education 7,273 17 8 Health and 20,207 30 22 community services GEH (a) 20,207 30 22 Finance and 703 2 1 insurance Property and 14,746 21 16 business services Other 2,662 2 3 Total 92,620 16 100 Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR Note: (a) Government administration and defence, Education, Health and community services combined
Table 4: Change in the number of employed tradespersons by trade, Australia 1996 to 2006, and number and share attributable to changed employment levels in the construction industry Employment level all industries Trade area 1996 2006 Change 1996-2006 Mechanical and 178,067 179,800 1,733 fabrication engineering Automotive 120,726 116,436 -4,290 trades persons Electrical and 136,240 162,418 26,178 electronics tradespersons Construction 540 1,823 1,283 tradespersons Structural 122,350 161,647 39,297 construction tradespersons Final finishes 43,223 55,569 12,346 construction tradespersons Plumbers 44,066 56,649 12,583 Food 83,298 90,263 6,965 tradespersons Skilled 64,185 72,168 7,983 agricultural and horticultural workers Printing 32,216 24,088 -8,128 tradespersons Wood 29,804 29,002 -802 tradespersons Hairdressers 40,162 47,878 7,716 Textile, 20,817 14,488 -6,329 clothing and related Miscellaneous 81,047 90,261 9,214 and other tradespersons and related workers nfd (b) Total 996,741 1,102,490 105,749 tradespersons Trade area Employment Share of employment change in change (all construction trade areas due industry by to employment trade areas change in construction 1996-2006 industry (a) (total numbers) (per cent) Mechanical and 1,313 75.8 fabrication engineering Automotive 380 -- trades persons Electrical and 20,329 77.7 electronics tradespersons Construction 906 70.6 tradespersons Structural 39,920 101.6 construction tradespersons Final finishes 9,457 76.6 construction tradespersons Plumbers 12,347 98.1 Food 106 1.5 tradespersons Skilled 5,074 63.6 agricultural and horticultural workers Printing 26 -- tradespersons Wood 1,261 -- tradespersons Hairdressers 2 0.0 Textile, 55 -- clothing and related Miscellaneous 1,162 12.6 and other tradespersons and related workers nfd (b) Total 92,338 87.3 tradespersons Source: ABS, 1996 and 2006 customised datasets held by CUPR Notes: (a) trade areas where employment levels declined between 1996 and 2006 have been omitted (b) includes defence force tradespersons; nfd = not further define
Table 5: Government, education and health (GEH) job growth, population growth and ratio of population to GEH growth 1996 to 2006 GEH increase Population Ratio of GEH 1996-2006 increase increase to (per cent) (per cent) population increase Victoria 32.3 12.1 2.7 New South Wales 26.4 8.9 3.0 Queensland 40.5 19.7 2.1 Western Australia 35.7 14.7 2.4 South Australia 27.8 5.4 5.1 Australia 31.1 11.8 2.6 source: ABS, customised industry by occupation 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR
Table 6: Share of job growth in government, education and health industries (GEH) 1996 to 2006 Total GEH Total Per cent job growth job growth GEH Victoria 122,757 376,759 32.6 New South Wales 137,777 346,227 39.8 Queensland 122,501 421,135 29.1 Western Australia 56,235 175,123 32.1 South Australia 38,083 92,620 41.1 NT 5,848 9,252 63.2 ACT 17,779 25,520 69.7 Tasmania 9,065 21,621 41.9 Australia 509,553 1,466,920 37.7 Source: ABS, customisd 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR
Table 7: Change in employment in skilled occupations and other occupations between 1996 and 2006 and share of occupational growth in government, Australia Industry group Skilled occupations Managers and Professionals Associate administrators professionals (a) Agriculture, forestry -297 596 917 and fishing Mining 2,797 4,966 2,225 Manufacturing 18,465 20,103 1,797 electricity, gas and 2,924 4,893 1,184 water Construction 21,014 9,906 20,097 Wholesaling 5,946 3,609 -1,897 Retailing 401 10,647 31,667 Accommodation, cafes 1,417 -217 21,755 and restaurants Transport and storage 4,907 5,183 1,989 Communication services 2,430 5,351 -7,675 Finance and insurance 10,359 20,362 28,268 Property and business 20,552 104,432 45,875 services Government 15,235 49,975 21,780 administration Education 10,580 83,759 10,302 Health and community 10,437 97,198 33,232 services GEH 36,252 230,932 65314 Cultural and recreation 1,858 4,344 5,621 services Personal services 2,297 5,260 9,127 Non classifiable 418 8,004 2,346 economic units Not stated 142 469 201 Total 131,882 438,840 228,811 GEH as per cent of 27 53 29 additional jobs 1996-2006 Occupations' share of 9 30 16 total growth (per cent) Industry group Tradespersons Total Other Total (b) skilled occupations occupations Agriculture, -1,988 -772 -10,699 -13,793 forestry and fishing Mining 3,240 13,228 7,238 20,238 Manufacturing 370 40,735 -6,179 32,204 electricity, 2,005 11,006 1,229 12,079 gas and water Construction 92,338 143,355 76,025 220,611 Wholesaling -6,630 1,028 -14,957 -14,050 Retailing 3,205 45,920 218,353 263,863 Accommodation, 2,689 25,644 52,052 78,197 cafes and restaurants Transport and 186 12,265 58,544 71,254 storage Communication -7,656 -7,550 -10,693 -18,304 services Finance and -495 58,494 -11,256 50,585 insurance Property and 3,869 174,728 49,516 227,126 business services Government -1,434 85,556 35,688 120,167 administration Education -2,635 102,006 37,266 138,711 Health and -7 140,860 108,316 251,419 community services GEH -4,076 328,422 181,270 510,297 Cultural and 2,068 13,891 9,903 23,862 recreation services Personal 13,269 29,953 15,232 44,313 services Non 2,230 12,998 -1,750 9,896 classifiable economic units Not stated 1,125 1,937 6,405 -27,449 Total 105,749 905,282 620,233 1,472,794 GEH as per cent -4 36 29 35 of additional jobs 1996-2006 Occupations' 7 61 42 100 share of total growth (per cent) Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census census detasets held by CPUR Notes: a Does not include farmers and farm managers b Total includes not stated and inadequately described
Table 8: Change in employment in professional occupations and the share of professional employment growth accounted for by the GEH between 1996 and 2006 Industry group Science, Computing Business building (except and Computers) engineering Agriculture, forestry and fishing 736 36 528 Mining 2,567 217 1,743 Manufacturing 3,909 2,459 7,188 electricity, gas and water 2,132 720 1,505 Construction 3,442 708 3,866 Wholesaling -241 903 896 Retailing 657 2,099 3,902 Accommodation cafes and restaurants -138 96 989 Transport and storage 576 737 2.321 Communication services 1,856 950 1.524 Finance and insurance -37 4,705 13,863 Property and business services 15,689 20,729 42,270 Government administration 8,805 4,400 17,161 Education 2,276 2,460 3,095 Health and community services 3,750 1,251 6,413 GEH 14,831 8,111 26,669 Cultural and recreation services 190 588 433 Personal services 300 764 2,761 Non classifiable economic units -322 2.029 3,087 Not stated 143 113 426 Total 46,290 45,964 114,171 GEH as per cent of total change 32.0 17.6 23.4 Industry group Medical Other practitioners health (incl. nursing) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0 -64 Mining -17 -2 Manufacturing -45 -266 electricity, gas and water -3 5 Construction 0 6 Wholesaling -37 181 Retailing -23 2.328 Accommodation cafes and restaurants -34 -236 Transport and storage 22 -15 Communication services -2 0 Finance and insurance -44 -297 Property and business services -126 2,284 Government administration -178 2,530 Education -16 498 Health and community services 11,530 57,519 GEH 11,336 60,547 Cultural and recreation services -11 -29 Personal services -11 -23 Non classifiable economic units -5 82 Not stated -87 130 Total 10,913 64,631 GEH as per cent of total change 103.9 93.7 Industry group School Other Social teachers education welfare Agriculture, forestry and fishing -124 -70 -41 Mining -9 38 18 Manufacturing -35 139 18 electricity, gas and water -3 84 5 Construction -16 98 88 Wholesaling 19 76 -9 Retailing -209 1 -45 Accommodation cafes and restaurants -314 -843 57 Transport and storage 23 217 79 Communication services -15 40 -16 Finance and insurance -45 60 59 Property and business services -1,528 848 1,0112 Government administration -1,283 964 8,485 Education 57,663 12,663 1,719 Health and community services -647 309 15,030 GEH 55,733 13,936 25,234 Cultural and recreation services -48 -82 -8 Personal services -414 -938 1,220 Non classifiable economic units 69 337 216 Not stated 23 -40 -18 Total 53,107 13,901 27,8735 GEH as per cent of total change 104.9 100.3 90.5 Industry group Other Other social professional Total Agriculture, forestry and fishing 63 -468 596 Mining 5,082 244 4,966 Manufacturing 5,082 1,654 20,103 electricity, gas and water 222 226 4,893 Construction 1,110 604 9,906 Wholesaling 1,807 14 3,609 Retailing 1,633 304 10,647 Accommodation cafes and restaurants 411 -205 -217 Transport and storage 391 832 5,183 Communication services 778 236 5,351 Finance and insurance 1,131 967 20,362 Property and business services 2,989 66 104,432 Government administration 6,135 2,956 49,975 Education 1,238 2,163 83,759 Health and community services 1,456 587 97,198 GEH 8,829 5,706 230,932 Cultural and recreation services 3,644 -333 4,344 Personal services 1,563 38 5,260 Non classifiable economic units 2,127 384 8,004 Not stated -118 -103 469 Total 1,824 10,166 438,840 GEH as per cent of total change 17.0 56.1 52.6 Source: ABS, customised 1996 and 2006 census datasets held by CPUR
Table 9: Commencing domestic undergraduate students, Australia, 2002 to 2006 by broad field of education 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sciences 15,692 15,657 16,032 15,796 15,471 IT 10,042 8,609 7,129 6,254 5,508 Engineering 10,902 10,699 10,436 10,531 10,888 Architecture 3,589 3,674 3,795 4,294 4,992 Ag/Env 4,783 4,737 4,718 3,695 3,559 Health 21,612 20,860 21,635 24,687 27,520 Education 20,890 18,579 19,032 20,599 20,747 Mgt & Commerce 31,491 29,940 29,923 31,881 32,400 Soc & Cult 46,592 43,066 41,578 46,006 47,291 Creative Arts 14,676 14,219 14,316 15,350 16,744 Food/Hosp. 36 1 1 55 36 Mixed 1,607 1,731 1,877 1,761 1,761 Total 181,912 171,772 170,472 180,909 186,917 Growth/decline (number) Growth (per cent) Sciences -221 -1.4 IT -4,534 -45.2 Engineering -14 -0.1 Architecture 1,403 39.1 Ag/Env -1,224 -25.6 Health 5,908 27.3 Education -143 -0.7 Mgt & Commerce 909 2.9 Soc & Cult 699 1.5 Creative Arts 2,068 14.1 Food/Hosp. 0 0.0 Mixed 154 9.6 Total 5,005 2.8 Source: Department of Employment, Science and Training, Higher education student statistics collection, 2002 to 2006
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