Dissatisfaction with immigration grows.

Article Type:

Statistical table

Subject:

Immigrants (Public opinion)
Immigrants (Demographic aspects)
Immigration policy (Evaluation)
Public opinion polls (Statistics)

Author:

Betts, Katharine

Pub Date:

09/01/2008

Publication:

Name: People and Place Publisher: Monash University, Centre for Population and Urban Research Audience: Academic Format: Magazine/Journal Subject: Sociology and social work Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2008 Monash University, Centre for Population and Urban Research ISSN: 1039-4788

Issue:

Date: Sept, 2008 Source Volume: 16 Source Issue: 3

Topic:

Event Code: 290 Public affairs; 680 Labor Distribution by Employer

Product:

Product Code: E198450 Immigrants

Geographic:

Geographic Scope: Australia Geographic Code: 8AUST Australia

Accession Number:

188967345

Full Text:

INTRODUCTION

Over the last 18 years attitudes to immigration in Australia have changed dramatically. In 1993 67 per cent of the electorate thought the intake too high while in the early years of this century this proportion halved to around a third. Now dissatisfaction is rising again. This article describes what has happened, analyses the social bases for both opposition and support, and outlines the recent policy changes which are taking immigration to record levels.

PUBLIC OPINION SINCE 1990

Immigration was deeply unpopular in the early 1990s. Figure 1 is based on responses to the post-election Australian Election Studies (AES) from 1990 to 2007. It relies on the question: 'The number of immigrants allowed into Australia at the present time has. ... with response categories: gone much too far, gone too far, about right, not gone far enough, not gone nearly far enough. This has been asked regularly since 1990.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Comparison with a different question, 'Do you think the number of immigrants allowed into Australia nowadays should be reduced or increased?', asked since 1996, shows that the reduce/increase question tends to elicit more definite answers; fewer respondents choose the neutral middle option or skip the question altogether. (1) This may be because the wording is clearer. The gone too far/not gone far enough question is also asked as part of a bank of questions about trends that may or may not have gone too far, such as: the right to show nudity and sex in films and magazines, controls on firearms, support for the fight against terrorism and so on. Consequently some respondents may not focus clearly on the immigration question, or may simply overlook it. In contrast the reduce/increase question is set out clearly as a stand-alone question.

Nevertheless the gone too far/not gone far enough question is useful because of the longer time series it presents. Figure I shows that in the early 1990s two thirds of the electorate thought the current intake had either gone too far or much too far, while by 2001 this proportion had dropped to 34 per cent.

In 1990 the economy was in recession; not only was GDP shrinking, unemployment was high and bank interest rates on housing loans had reached 17 per cent. (2) Net overseas migration had averaged more than 130,000 a year for the previous five years (1985-86 to 1989-1990), (3) and the then Labor Government (led first by Bob Hawke and then by Paul Keating) was enthusiastically committed to multiculturalism. Leaders of ethnic groups were courted by politicians and new immigrants had easy access to welfare and to labour-market benefits. In such a setting some voters could have believed that immigration was bringing in competitors for scarce jobs, and (as the FitzGerald Report suggested) that its key purpose was to appease ethnic lobbyists and increase ethnic diversity. (4)

While GDP increased from 1992-93, (5) thus bringing the recession to a technical end, unemployment remained at over 10 per cent, only falling to around eight per cent in 1995. (6) With the election of the Liberal/National Party Coalition Government led by John Howard in March 1996, the economy continued to improve. Interest rates, which were 10.5 per cent at the time of the 1996 election, began to fall, as did unemployment. As far as the politics of immigration were concerned the term multicultural ism almost disappeared from political rhetoric and far reaching changes to the immigration program limited family reunion and restricted new migrants' access to welfare and labour market benefits. (7)

The Howard Government also initially reduced the overall size of the program. The reduction was not extensive (see Figure 2 below) but it was widely criticised by the growth lobby, and by some opinion makers; consequently voters may have thought the cuts larger and more long lasting than they actually were. An impression that the Government was determined to be firm on immigration was reinforced by its tough action on border control. (8) Many voters may have come to believe that the program was not only small, well targeted and operating in the national interest, but that it was also under close control.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

All of these changes may have muted voters' concerns about immigration. An additional factor was anxiety about the ageing of the population. The 2005 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes asked respondents what was the most important issue facing Australia. It gave them a list of 18 issues and 14.2 per cent chose 'An ageing population' as their top issue, a score only bested by 'Heath care and hospitals' (15.2 per cent) and 'Taxes too high on ordinary Australians' (14.5 per cent). People who worried about ageing were more supportive of immigration than the electorate as a whole, suggesting that some voters believe the myth that high immigration is an effective anti-ageing remedy, (9) This too may have softened attitudes to immigration. As Figure 1 shows, by the late 1990s, opposition had fallen substantially. (10)

The reduce/increase immigration question has now been asked in all of the AES voters' studies since 1996 (except the 1999 referendum study). It was also asked in the separate questionnaires sent to election candidates in 1996, 2001 and 2004 (there was no candidates study in 1998, and no immigration question for candidates in 2007). It was also asked in the 2003 and 2005 Australian Surveys of Social Attitudes (AuSSA). It is now so widely used mat the present analysis will focus on it, rather than on the not gone far enough/gone too far question. Table 1 shows changes in responses to the reduce/increase question among voters between 1996 and 2007.

Table 1 confirms the picture provided by Figure 1; 2004 was the year when dissatisfaction with immigration was at its lowest level. But by 2007 this dissatisfaction had increased by 12 percentage points to 46 per cent of the electorate and active support for an increase had fallen by eight percentage points to 15 per cent of the electorate. (11) Previous research has shown that people standing for election to the federal parliament tend to be much more in favour of immigration than the electorate as a whole. (12) This is particularly true of Labor candidates; in 2004, 24 per cent of Labor voters wanted in increase in immigration compared to 72 per cent of Labor candidates. Unfortunately the absence of an immigration question on the 2007 candidates' survey means that this part of the story cannot be brought up-to-date.

PATTERNS OF DISSATISFACTION AND SUPPORT IN 2007

The 2007 AES data were collected just after the 24 November election (won by the Labor Party led by Kevin Rudd). Overall, in 2007, Australia-born voters were more disaffected with the level of immigration than were overseas-born voters, but the difference between the Australia-born and voters born in main-English-speaking-background (MESB) countries was very slight. Consequently Table 2 combines these two birthplace groupings. (13) It is those born in other countries, almost all non-English-speaking-background countries (NESB), who are the stand-out group. They are much more likely to want an increase, and much less likely to want a decrease (even so only 27 per cent of NESBs would prefer an increase). The other main division is between graduates and non-graduates; this follows a long-standing pattern of university-educated people tending to have sharply different attitudes to immigration from those of their less well-educated compatriots. (14)

Table 3 shows that this educational division is reflected when attitudes to immigration are analysed by occupation; professionals, who are much more likely to be graduates, are also much more likely to support high immigration, and much less likely to want a reduction. The occupational groups that are most negative about immigration are trades people, intermediate production and transport workers, and elementary clerks.

Immigrants disproportionately settle in Sydney in New South Wales (NSW) and Melbourne in Victoria. In 2006-07,33.1 per cent settled in NSW and 25.5 per cent in Victoria; Queensland came third, attracting 18.6 per cent, and Western Australia (WA) fourth, with 13.2 per cent. (15) This follows a long established pattern. In 2004 opposition to immigration was higher than the national average in NSW and lower in Victoria, suggesting that higher levels of settlement had eroded the willingness of voters in NSW to accept further inflows more rapidly than the rather smaller inflows in Victoria. (See Tables 5 and 6 below.) But by 2007 there was no statistically significant difference between the states and territories, except for the Australia Capital Territory (ACT). Table 4 shows the four most populous states separately, together with the ACT, and groups the remainder together.

Previous research has shown that support for high immigration tends to be concentrated in inner-metropolitan areas and in Canberra, in the ACT. (16) Despite the overall drop in support since 2004, Table 4 shows that the ACT remains a pro-immigration stronghold. The number of respondents is small, but the difference between their attitudes and those of other Australians is marked. Table 5 shows that the relative pattern of more support for immigration in inner-city regions still holds in 2007. It also suggests that, while Victoria in 2007 was not very different from Australia as a whole at the state level, inner-city Melbourne was more supportive of immigration than all other regions in Australia, apart from the ACT.

Graduates and NESB migrants are more likely to live in inner-metropolitan areas than are other demographic groups; in 2007, 29 per cent of all respondents to the AES lived in inner-metropolitan areas compared to 43 per cent of graduates and 47 per cent of NESB-born immigrants. Differences in support for immigration can be largely explained by these different residential patterns. (17) But while this explains the locational differences it does not explain them away. They still matter politically because people living in inner-city areas, and in Canberra, are more likely to influence public debates, by virtue of their higher education, their professional occupations, and their proximity to government.

CHANGES BETWEEN 2004 AND 2006

In 2004 voters in NSW were more negative about immigration than Australians as a whole, while those in Victoria were less negative. Table 6 shows that by 2007 this difference had eroded; it was still evident but was no longer large enough for statistical significance. Support for increased immigration in Victoria had shrunk by 15 percentage points and support for a reduction had grown by 16 percentage points; both of these changes were well above the national average. This meant that, by 2007, Victorians were much more like the rest of Australians than they had been in 2004.

Why did these changes occur, both in Victoria and in Australia as a whole? There had been a rise in interest rates during the 2007 election campaign, but in late November and December 2007 the overall economic outlook was fair. The bad economic news--the international credit squeeze, the dramatic fall in the stock market that may have reduced household wealth by seven per cent, (18) the falling value of superannuation, the sharp increases in the costs of fuel and food, fears of inflation--all these came later, during 2008.

From any conventional economic perspective the years 2004 to 2007 were rosy. It is unusual to see support for immigration decline so steeply in such circumstances. What could have caused it? One possibility is that the immediate negative consequences of rapid population growth became evident to more people: rising house prices and rents, pressure to increase residential densities in previously low-density suburbs, increased congestion on the roads, pressure on hospitals and health services, and overcrowding on public transport.

From 1995 to 2004, Australia's total population grew by around 235,000 or 1.26 per cent a year, 42 per cent from net overseas migration. From 2005 to 2007 the annual growth rate averaged 294,830 or 1.46 per cent, 50 per cent from net overseas migration. (19)

This growth was not evenly distributed. From 2004 to 2007 Australia added an extra 884,500 people. But despite the fact that more overseas migrants settle in Sydney, nearly twice as many people were added to Melbourne's population than to Sydney's (see Table 7). The reason for this is that heavy out migration from NSW (mainly Sydney) reduced the overall impact of overseas immigration. From 2004 to 2007 a net average of 27,000 people left NSW each year for other parts of Australia, many of them for south-eastern Queensland. (20) Indeed, from 2004 to 2007 interstate migration accounted for 34 per cent of Queensland's population growth. (21)

Table 7 shows that Melbourne added more people during the four-year period than any other region and its acute growing pains have been analysed elsewhere. (22) Residents protested as urban planners strove to accommodate burgeoning numbers by increasing housing densities, and as Melbourne, and other cities, continued to be plagued by water shortages, some voters wondered about the logic of pursuing further growth. (23) (Other commentators, motivated mainly by rising property values, found the prospect of more and more growth appealing.) (24)

Though the 2007 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes (AuSSA) had no question on immigration it did repeat the question on important issues facing Australia. Table 8 shows that an ageing population was still high on the list of concerns (ranked fourth, instead of third) but that the environment and affordable housing had moved much higher up the list. indeed lack of affordable housing moved from eleventh place to third place, a quite remarkable change over a two-year period. Even public transport moved from being the issue least likely to be chosen in 2005, and ranked 18th, to a higher concern, ranked 15th. And environmental damage was now firmly in second place.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN IMMIGRATION POLICY

Even while they were enjoying economic prosperity the share of the Australian electorate wanting a contraction in immigration increased sharply between 2004 and 2007. Late in 2007 46 per cent wanted a reduction and only 15 per cent wanted an increase. But one of the first actions of the Rudd Government after the election was to announce a dramatic increase in the intake, from its already very high levels. Including the humanitarian sub-program, the total planned permanent intake for 2008-2009 stands at 203,800. (25)

Figure 2 shows that this exceeds the very high levels of the 1960s, and that it is much higher than the high immigration of the Hawke/Keating Labor Governments from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s.

There had been no mention of plans to boost immigration and population growth during the campaign; it was a post-election surprise. But it was not challenged by any of the other political parties. In a casual aside in September 2008 Rudd showed that he simply assumed that Australia would grow from its current population of 21 million to reach 35 million in 2050. (27) Here he was drawing on recent ABS projections, the series B projection which assumes a total fertility rate of 1.8 and net overseas migration of 180,000 a year, a number which Figure 2 shows to be considerably higher than recent totals. For example in the years to June 30, 2001 to 2006, net overseas migration averaged 122,000 per annum (more recent data are not yet available).

Table 9 sets out three different ABS projections, one (series B) including net overseas migration at 180,000 a year, and the other two with net overseas migration set at zero. The contrast is striking. While nil net migration is probably both unattainable and undesirable the table shows that almost all of Australia's growth between 2007 and 2056 under series B would be due to immigration. It also shows that an increase in the total fertility rate from 1.8 to 2.0 would have only a small effect on overall numbers, especially relative to immigration. (It would however have a beneficial effect on the age structure of the population, a point that cannot be pursued here.) (28) True the decreases in Sydney's population might cause some alarm, but these are based on the assumption that current levels of out-migration from NSW to other states would continue. (29) Without the pressure on locals to leave their city these levels of out-migration would probably not eventuate.

CONCLUSION

The demographic trajectory that the new Government has committed itself to has minimal electoral support. Forty-six per cent of voters want immigration to be reduced but the Government is deliberately taking it to record levels. It is able to do this because neither the Liberal/National Party opposition nor any of the minor parties are raising fundamental questions. Will political bipartisanship mean that the Government is able to continue along the path that it has set for itself, or will it meet some of the problems that eventually confronted the Keating Government?

Australia's demographic future is not inevitable; it is determined by government policy. Urban congestion and declining housing affordability suggest that the disjunction between this policy and popular feeling may not be easy to ignore over the long term.

References

(1) In the 2007 AES, in response to the gone too far/not gone far enough question, 45.0 per cent chose the neutral option of 'about right' and 3.1 percent didn't answer the question. In response to the reduce/increase question 38.0 per cent chose the neutral middle option of 'remain about the same as it is' and only 1.6 per cent skipped the question.

(2) Data on interest rates are from the Reserve Back web site , F05 Indicator lending rates, accessed 8/9/08.

(3) Calculated from Australian Demographic Statistics, Catalogue no. 3101.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Canberra, various issues

(4) S. FitzGerald, Immigration: A Commitment to Australia, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, 1988, pp. 31,59

(5) See accessed 8/9/08.

(6) See Labour Force, Australia, Spreadsheets, ABS, Catalogue no. 6202.0.55.001.

(7) See B. Birrell, Immigration Reform in Australia: Coalition Government Proposals and Outcomes since March 1996, Centre for Population and Urban Research Monash University, Melbourne, 1997.

(8) See K. Betts, 'Immigration policy under the Howard Government', Australian Journal of Social Issues, vol. 38, no. 2, 2003, pp. 169-192.

(9) K. Betts, "The ageing of the population and attitudes to immigration', People and Place, vol. 14, no. 2,2006, pp. 26-38. For data on the actual effects of immigration on demographic ageing sec Productivity Commission, Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia: Productivity Commission Research Report, 24 March, Productivity Commission, Melbourne, 2005; R. Kippen, 'A note on aging, immigration and the birth rate', People and Place, vol. 7, no. 2, 1999, pp. 18-22; C. Young and L. Day, 'Australia's demographic future: determinants of our population', Population 2040: Australia's Choice, Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, 1994; Projections of the Populations of Australia, States and Territories: 1999-2101, Catalogue no. 3222,0, ABS, Canberra, 2000, p. 2.

(10) See M. Goot, 'More "relaxed and comfortable": public opinion on immigration under Howard', People and Place, vol. 8, no. 3,2000, pp. 46-60; K. Betts, 'Immigration and public opinion: understanding the shift', People and Place, vol. 10, no. 4,2002, pp. 24-37.

(11) The Scanlon Foundation report used a different method and a different question in 2007 and got a different result. It found in June/August 2007 that 35 percent of their respondents thought the current intake too high, 42 percent thought it about right, 13 percent found it too low, and 10 per cent didn't know or wouldn't answer. The authors add the 'about right' figures to the those for 'too low' and conclude that a majority support current immigration. (This pattern of results is actually quite close to that provided by the gone too far/not gone far enough question in the 2007 AES: 39 per cent gone too far or much too far, 45 per cent about right, 13 per cent not gone far enough or nearly far enough, 3 per cent missing.) For the Scanlon data see A. Markus, Mapping Social Cohesion: The Scanlon Foundation Surveys, Summary Report, p. 11, and A. Markus and A. Dharmalingam, Mapping Social Cohesion: The Scanlon Foundation Surveys, pp. 62-63, both published by Monash Institute for the Study of Global Movements, Melbourne, 2008. The question asked was: 'Now some questions about immigration. What do you think of the number of immigrants accepted into Australia at present? Would you say it is: too high, about right, or too low?' The data come from a national, random sample, interviewed by telephone.

(12) See K. Betts, 'Cosmopolitans and patriots: Australia's cultural divide and attitudes to immigration', People and Place, vol. 13, no. 2, 2005, Figures 1 and 2, pp. 32, 33.

(13) Twelve per cent of Australia-born respondents wanted an increase compared with 16 per cent of MESB-born respondents, and 49 per cent of the Australia-born wanted areduction compared to 46 percent of the MESB-born.

(14) See K. Betts, The Great Divide: Immigration Politics in Australia, Duffy and Snellgrove, Sydney, 1999.

(15) Population Flows: Immigration Aspects 2006-07 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship, Canberra, 2008, p. 106

(16) See for example AES 2004 in Betts, 2005, op. cit., Table 7, p. 37.

(17) If support for immigration is analysed by location, controlling for education and birthplace, inner-city dweller are still rather more supportive than people in provincial and rural areas but the differences in the 2007 AES are not statistically significant.

(18) M. Stutchbury, 'Backlash in the boom', The Australian, 9 September 2008, p. 12

(19) Averages calculated from Australian Demographic Statistics, Catalogue no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra, various issues

(20) Calculated from ibid. See also R. Barker, 'Queensland remains a population magnet', People and Place, vol. 16, no. 2,2008, p. 19.

(21) Calculated from Australian Demographic Statistics Catalogue, op. tit., September quarter 2007, 2008, pp. 10-12

(22) See B. Birrell and E. Healy, Melbourne's Population Surge: CPUR Bulletin, Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash, Melbourne, 2008.

(23) See R. Judd, 'Letter: 8 million by 2050 The liveable city?'. The Age, 5 August 2008, p. 12; T. Shanahan, 'Letter: Australia can't cope with many more people', The Australian, 19 May 2008, p. 9; M. Kingston, 'Letter; Too many people', The Australian, 2 July 2007, p. 15; R. Johnston, 'Letter: Missing the point on water', The Australian, 7 October 2006, p. 16; J. Orton, 'Letter: It's imperative that governments take more radical action: Most talked about water restrictions', The Australian, 27 December 2006, p. 11.

(24) See B. Salt, 'Growing concern: population boom expected', The Australian, II September 2008, p. 24.

(25) The 2008-09 planning figures (non-humanitarian) arc from media release May 2008 ; humanitarian (and special eligibility data) are from Fact Sheet 20--Migration Program Planning Levels July 2008.

(26) Data on net migration from June 1960 to June 1974 on both net total migration and settler arrivals arc from Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics No. 13, Department of immigration and Multicultural Affairs (DIMA), 1983; 1975 to 2006 net overseas migration data: are from Migration, various issues, ABS, Catalogue no. 3412.0 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues, ABS, Catalogue no. 3101.0. Data for visas issued from June 1975 to June 1999 are from the Immigration Department's annual reports. From June 1999 to June 2008 they are from Population Flows, various issues, published by the Immigration Department. The sources for the planning figures for visas for 2008-09 are in note 25 above. The immigration program's permanent migration data include the humanitarian sub-program, though data on this have been published separately since 1993 (however earlier years often do not include immigrants granted visas onshore).

(27) See M. Franklin, 'Rudd warns Australia must prepare for emerging arms race across Asia--PM flags major naval build-up', The Australian, 10 September 2008, pp. 1, 6.

(28) While Kippen and McDonald do not advocate this, they show that the fastest way to a moderately small stationary population with the youngest feasible age structure is nil net migration plus a TFR of 2.1. R. Kippen and P, McDonald. 'Achieving population targets for Australia: an analysis of the options', People and Place, vol. 6, no. 2, 1998, pp. 11-23

(29)See Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101, Catalogue no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra, 2008, pp. 32-33.

Katharine Betts

Immigration has increased considerably since the late 1990s and between 2004 and 2007 the proportion of voters who want the intake to be reduced rose from 34 per cent to 46 per cent. While support for a reduction was highest in New South Wales, this support was already high in 2004. In relative terms support for a reduction rose most strongly in Victoria. This may be because, over the four-year period, Melbourne absorbed a greater proportion of Australia's population growth than any other region. Despite growing electoral disquiet, the new Labor Government is increasing the immigration program to record levels.

Table 1: Attitudes to immigration, 1996 to 2007, per cent

Number of       [section]19%  [section]1998  [section]2001   * 2003
immigrants
should be:

Increased a                8             13             25      24
lot or a
little

Remain about              28             38             37      33
the same as it
is

Reduced a                 63             47             36      37
little or a
lot

Missing/can't              1              2              2       7
choose

Total                    100            100            100     100

Total N                 1797           1897           2010    4270

Number of immigrants should be:  [section]2004  * 2005  [section]2007

Increased a lot or a little                 23      23             15
Remain about the same as it is              40      33             38
Reduced a little or a lot                   34      39             46
Missing/can't choose                         2       6              2
Total                                      100     100            100
Total N                                   1769    3902           1873

Sources: [section] AES, * AuSSA, sec appendix for details.

Notes: The question was: 'Do you think the number of immigrants allowed
into Australia nowadays should be reduced or increased?' Response
categories: increased a lot, increased a little, remain about the same
as it is, reduced a little, reduced a lot. Can't choose was a further
option, offered only by AuSSA; n=250(5.9 per cent) in 2003 and 192 (4.9
per cent) in 2005. (It seems to reduce the percentage choosing the
'about the same' category more than it reduces the other categories.

The difference between 2003 and 2004 in the category 'Increased a lot
or a little' is very small: 23.7 per cent in 2003 and 23. 3 per cent in
2004, a difference of 0.4 per cent.

Table 2: Attitudes to immigration by education level and birthplace,
2007, per cent

                       Graduates                  Non-graduates

Number of         Australia-  NESB-born  Australia-  NESB-born   Total
immigrants           and                   and
should be:        MESB-born              MESB-born

Increased a lot     ** 29       * 32         * 8       * 25         15
or a little

Remain about the       42         49          37         38         38
same as it is

Reduced a little     * 28       * 18        * 55       * 33         46
or a lot

Missing                 1          1           0          4          2

Total                 100        100         100        10C        100

Total N               358         84       1,112        167      1,873

Source: AES2007

Notes: MESB stands for main English-speaking background countries and
NESB for non-English-speaking-background countries.
Those missing on education and/or birth place (n= 152) arc not shown
separately but arc included in the total,

* The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .05 level.

* The difference between me sub-category and the total is significant
at the .01 level.

Table 3: Attitudes to immigration by occupation, 2007, per cent

Number of immigrants    Managers and   Professionals    Associate
should be:             administrators                 professionals

Increased a lot or a         16            ** 25            13
little

Remain about the same        43               44            38
as it is

Reduced a little or a        41            ** 31            48
lot

Missing                       0                1             1

Total                       100              100           100

Total N                     216              404           242

Number of immigrants   Tradespersons  Advanced and  Intermediate
should be:               & related    intermediate  production &
                          workers        clerks       transport
                                                      workers

Increased a lot or a         11             10             9
little

Remain about the same        30             39            33
as it is

Reduced a little or a      * 58             49          * 58
lot

Missing                       1              1             0

Total                       100            100           100

Total N                     158            312           112

Number of immigrants      Elementary  Labourers    Total
should be:                  clerks    & related
                                       workers

Increased a lot or a            9         10          15
little

Remain about the same as       33         33          38
it is

Reduced a little or a        * 58         57          46
lot

Missing                         0          0           2

Total                         100        100         100

Total N                       110         93       1,873

Source: AES 2007

Notes: The occupation data on the original file were coded to the new
ANZSCO schema. They have been recoded here back into the former ASCO
system using ANZSCO--Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification
of Occupations, First Edition, Correspondence tables, Australian Bureau
of Statistics (ABS) Catalogue no. 1220.0.

Occupation is the respondent's current occupation, or their former
occupation if unemployed or retired. Respondents who have never been
in the labour force, or whose occupation is inadequately described or
missing (n = 226), are not shown separately but are included in the
total.

* The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .05 level.

** The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .01 level.

Table 4: Attitudes to immigration by state and territory, 2007, per cent

Number of    NSW  Victoria  Queensland  WA     ACT    South      Total
immigrants                                           Australia,
should be:                                           Tasmania,
                                                     Northern
                                                     territory

Increased a   14     16         12       16    * 34      16         15
lot or a
little

Remain        34     39         39       43      46      42         38
about the
same as it
is

Reduced a     50     44         48       38   ** 20      42         46
little or a
lot

Missing        2      2          1        2       0        1         2

Total        100    100        100      100     100      100       100

Total        606    480        359      164      35      211      1873

Source: 2007 AES

Notes: Missing on state and territory (n=18) are not shown separately.
Of the 35 respondents in the ACT, 34 lived in Canberra.

* The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .05 level.

** The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .01 level.

Table 5: Attitudes to immigration by location, 2007, per cent

Number of    Inner     Inner     ACT    Inner    Outer
immigrants   Sydney  Melbourne        Brisbane,  Sydney
should be:                            Adelaide
                                      and Perth

Increased a    20      * 27     * 34      20        12
lot or a
little

Remain         37        41       46      39        37
about the
same as it
is

Reduced a      39        30     * 20      40        51
little or a
lot

Missing         3         2        0       1         1

Total         100       100      100     100       100

Total N       190       125       35     177       136

Number of      Outer      Outer    Rest  Rest of   Rest of   Total
immigrants   Melbourne  Brisbane,   of   Victoria  Qld, SA
should be:              Adelaide   NSW             and WA
                        and Perth

Increased a      15         15       10       8     * 10        15
lot or a
little

Remain           39         42       31      36       41        38
about the
same as it
is

Reduced a        45         42     * 58    * 53       46        46
little or a
lot

Missing           2          1        1       2        2         2

Total           100        100      100     100      100       100

Total N         190        196      280     165      292      1873

Source: 2007 AES

Notes: Sub-totals for Tasmania and the Northern Territory (n = 69) and
missing (n = 15) are not shown separately.

ACT is Australia Capital Territory, NSW is New South Wales, Vic is
Victoria, Old is Queensland, SA is South Australia, and WA is West
Australia.

* The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .05 level.

** The difference between the sub-category and the total is significant
at the .01 level.

Table 6: Attitudes to immigration in NSW and Victoria, 2007 and 2004,
per cent, and per cent change

The number      New South Wales            Victoria
of
immigrants
should be:

             2004  2007  2004-2007  2004  2007  2004-2007

Increased a  * 18    14      -4     * 31    16     -15
lot or a
little

Remain         37    34      -3       39    39       0
about the
same as it
is

Reduced a    * 43    50       7     * 27    44      16
little or a
lot

Missing         2     2                3     2

Total         100   100              100   100

Total N       555   606              442   480

The number     Rest of Australia         Total
of
immigrants
should be:

             2004  2007  2004-2007  2004  2007  2004-2007

Increased a    23    15      -8       23    15      -8
lot or a
little

Remain         43    41      -2       40    38      -2
about the
same as it
is

Reduced a      31    43      11       34    46      11
little or a
lot

Missing         2     1                2     2

Total         100   100              100   100

Total N       753   769             1769  1873

Sources: AES 2004 and 2007

Note: * The difference between the sub-category and the total for that
year is significant at the .05 level.

Table 7: Population growth in Australia by region, numbers and per
cent distribution, 2004 to 2007

                         2004        2007     Increase  per cent

Sydney                4,225,088    4,334,000   108,912     12
Rest of NSW           2,485,404    2,555,072    69,668      8
Melbourne             3,592,975    3,805,800   212,825     24
Rest of Victoria      1,390,081    1,399,416     9,335      1
Brisbane              1,777,667    1,857,000    79,333      9
Rest of Queensland    2,124,144    2,325,062   200,918     23
Other capital cities  3,213,162    3,376,700   163,538     18
Rest of Australia     1,317,941    1,361,712    43,771      5
Australia             20,132,756  21,017,222   884,466    100

Sources: Derived from Australian Demographic Statistics (September
Quarter 2007) Catalogue no, 3101,0, ABS, Canberra, 2008; data for
cities' populations in 2007 arc from Population Projections, Australia,
2006 to 2101. Catalogue no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra, 2008, p. 7.

Note: Sub-totals do not add exactly to the total given for Australia;
the discrepancies arc in the original data.

Table 8: AuSSA 2005 and 2007, issues facing Australia, first and
second choices combined, by per cent and rank order in 2007

                                     2005               2007

                                Rank    Per cent    Rank    Per cent
                                order  choosing as  order  choosing as
                                       1st or 2nd          1st or 2nd
                                         issue               issue

Health care and hospitals          1        15          1        13

Environmental damage               5         7          2        10

Lack of affordable housing        11         3          3         9

An ageing population               3        11          4         8

Australian jobs going to other     7         7          5         8
countries

Lack of moral values in the        6         7          6         8
community

Taxes too high on ordinary         2        12          7         7
Australians

Gap between rich and poor          4         9          8         7

Crime                              9         5          9         5

Drugs                             12         3         10         5

Australian involvement in         10         4         11         3
military conflicts overseas

Terrorism                          8         5         12         3

Minorities having too much say    13         2         13         3
in politics

Refugees and asylum seekers       14         2         14         2

Inadequate public transport       18         1         15         1

Corruption in government          15         2         16         1

Too much red tape holding         16         1         17         1
business back

Not enough progress towards       17         1         18         1
Aboriginal reconciliation

Missing                           --         2         --         5

Total                             --       100         --       100

N (for up to two responses)       --     7,804                5,562

Sources: Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005 and 2007 (version
A). See appendix.

Note: The questions was: 'Here is a list of issues facing Australia.
Which of the following do you sec as most important? And the next most
important?' Because respondents made a first choice and then a second
choice, the unit of analysis in Table 8 is one choice not one
respondent.

Table 9: Population projections, 2007 to 2036 and 2056

                      2007        2036        2056     Increase 2007
                                                          to 2056
                                                          per cent

Series B. TFR 1.8, net overseas migration 180,000 p. a.
Sydney              4,334,000   5,426,300   6,976,800       61.0
Melbourne           3,805,800   5,038,100   6,789,200       78.4
Rest of Australia  12,885,200  16,772,300  21,704,000       68.4
Australia          21,025,000  27,236,700  35,470,000       68.7

Series 65, TFR 1.8, nil net overseas migration
Sydney              4,334,000   3,847,681   2,976,836      -31.3
Melbourne           3,805,800   3,938,031   3,580,495       -5.9
Rest of Australia  12,885,200  15,559,698  15,989,592       24.1
Australia          21,025,000  23,345,410  22,546,923        7.2

Series 59, TFR 2.0, nil net overseas migration
Sydney              4,334,000   3,962,322   3,209,621      -25.9
Melbourne           3,805,800   4,044,992   3,811,306        0.1
Rest of Australia  12,885,200  15,963,598  16,947,583       31.5
Australia          21,025,000  23,970,912  23,968,510       14.0

Source: Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101, Catalogue no.
3222,0, ABS, Canberra, 2008, pp. 3,7, for series B (also labelled as
series 29), and data cubes downloaded from  for
series 65 and 69

Note: TFR. stands for total fertility rate. All three series assume
life expectancy at birth of 85 years for males and 88 years for females
and 'medium flows' of net interstate migration.

Appendix 1: The Australian Election Studies (AES) 1987 to 2007 and the
Australian Survey of Social Attitudes (AuSSA), 2003 to 2007
All respondents are voters drawn from the electoral rolls and the data
were collected by mailed-out, self-completed questionnaires. All of the
data files were obtained from the Australian Social Science Data
Archives at the Australian National University:
. The authors of these files are not
responsible for my interpretation of their work.

1987 AES: I. McAllister and A. Mughan,  N = 1825, response rate
Australian Election Survey, 1987,       62.8% (based on 2905
Data collected by A. Ascui, Canberra,   mailouts that were in scope)
Roger Jones, Canberra: Australian
Social Science Data Archives (ASSDA),
The Australian National University
(ANU), 1987

1990 AES: I. McAllister, R. Jones, E.   N = 2037, response rate 58.5%
Papadakis, D. Gow, Australian           (based on 3482 mailouts that
Election Study, 1990, Canberra,         were in scope)
ASSDA, ANU, 1990

1993 AES: R. Jones, Australian          N = 3023, response rate 62.8
Election Study, 1993, Canberra, ASSDA,  % (based on 4813 mailouts
ANU, 1993                               that were in scope)

1996 AES: R.   Jones, I. McAllister,    N = 1795, response rate 61.8%
D. Gow, Australian Election Study,      (based on 2905 mailouts that
1996 Canberra, ASSDA, ANU, 1996         were in scope)

1998 AES: Clive Bean et al. Australian  N = 1897, response rate 57.7%
Election Study, 1998, Canberra,         (based on 3289 mailouts that
ASSDA, ANU, 1998                        were in scope)

2001 AES: Clive Bean, David Gow and     N = 2010, response rate 55.4%
Ian McAllister, Australian Election     (based on 3631 mailouts that
Study, Canberra, ASSDA, ANU, 2002       were in scope)

2003 AuSSA: R. Gibson et al.,           N = 4270, response rate 44%
Australian Survey of Social Attitudes,  (based on 9777 mailouts that
2003. Canberra, Canberra, ASSDA, ANU,   were in scope)
2004

2004 AES: Clive Bean et al.,            N = 1769, response rate 44.5%
Australian Election Study, 2004,        (based on 3975 mailouts that
Canberra, Clive Bean, David Gow and     were in scope)
Ian McAllister, 2005.

2005 AuSSA: S. Wilson et. al.,          N = 3902, response rate 43%
Australian Survey of Social Attitudes,  (based on 9146 mailouts that
2005, Canberra, ASSDA, ANU, 2006        were in scope)

2007 AuSSA (version A): T. Phillips,    N (version A) = 2783 (response
The Australian Survey of Social         rate 42%)
Attitudes, 2007, Canberra: ASSDA, ANU,
2008

2007 AES: C. Bean et al., Australian    N= 1873, response rate 40.2%
Election Study, 2007, Canberra, Give    (based on 4663 mailouts that
Bean, David Gow and Ian McAllister,     were in scope)
2008

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