Changing revealed comparative advantage: a case study of footwear industry of Pakistan.
Subject: Footwear industry (Case studies)
Footwear industry (Analysis)
Entrepreneurship (Case studies)
Entrepreneurship (Analysis)
Authors: Akhtar, Naseem
Zakir, Nadia
Ghani, Ejaz
Pub Date: 12/22/2008
Publication: Name: Pakistan Development Review Publisher: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Audience: Academic Format: Magazine/Journal Subject: Business, international; Social sciences Copyright: COPYRIGHT 2008 Reproduced with permission of the Publications Division, Pakistan Institute of Development Economies, Islamabad, Pakistan. ISSN: 0030-9729
Issue: Date: Winter, 2008 Source Volume: 47 Source Issue: 4
Product: SIC Code: 3021 Rubber and plastics footwear; 3143 Men's footwear, except athletic; 3144 Women's footwear, except athletic; 3149 Footwear, except rubber, not elsewhere classified
Accession Number: 228122173
Full Text: The study looks at the issues facing the footwear industry regarding its competitiveness in the global perspective and its potential for growth. The methodology of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is used to analyse the comparative advantage at 2-digit and 4-digit levels of industrial classification. The paper highlights the problems faced by the footwear industry and identifies the role of entrepreneurship for the progress of the industry. The analysis shows that in recent years, specifically the period from 2003-06, the footwear industry has moved from disadvantage (as compared with China and India) position to comparative advantage. The study indicates that there is potential for higher growth of the industry and it can become a source of export earnings. The study suggests that in the rapidly changing global economic environment and in the face of increasing cost of doing business in Pakistan, there is a need to strengthen the competitiveness of the footwear industry in Pakistan.

JEL classification: L67

Keywords: Revealed Comparative Advantage, Footwear, Pakistan.

1. INTRODUCTION

The global export patterns are changing fast as a result of reduction in trade barriers and technological advancements that have led to gains in productivity and change in comparative advantage patterns in world economies. Asian economies such as China and India are enjoying a notable growth in changing circumstances across the world. Pakistan also has great potential for higher growth however the political threats, socioeconomic environment and lack of updated technologies are obstruction in the way of progress.

Some sectors of Pakistan economy have shown a good performance in terms of production and exports. Footwear is one such industry which has increased its exports at large extent since 2003. This sector has pivotal importance in terms of providing and creating jobs, earning of foreign exchange with the help of exports and fulfilling the local consumption requirements.

Both in Pakistan and around the globe, the demand for footwear is increasing. Pakistan is one of the most populous countries in the World and according to an estimate with an average population growth of 2.25 percent, about 3 million children have been born during the year 2005-06, signaling the growing demand for footwear in Pakistan. It is also estimated that about 60 percent of the World's total consumption consists of simple footwear made entirely of non-leather materials and that for the remaining 40 percent only the upper part of the shoe is made of leather. In the manufacturing of footwear, most frequently used material consists upon leather, man-made materials, rubber / canvas / synthetic and textile along accessories. Different type of shoes are being produced by the local industry e.g. sportsmen, army, disabled persons and safety shoes for the industrial workers etc. The population of Pakistan is expected to be about 172 million in the year 2010. Keeping in view the growth in population, the growth in the demand of footwear industry is also anticipated.

Though, significant growth has taken place in the Shoe Industry of Pakistan, but there is a view that it has not been up to the mark and the industry has suffered due to a growing and fierce competition of the emerging economies like India and China. There is a general perception that after suffering from the cut-throat competition especially with China, the footwear industry is doing better especially in the previous two years and it is regaining the strength to fulfill the local demand as well as compete efficiently in the world market.

The objective of this study is to analyse the comparative advantage of the footwear industry in Pakistan and compare it with China and India in the global perspective. The study will look into the issues facing industry regarding its competitiveness in the world market and will look at the future potential of growth in the footwear industry of Pakistan. The revealed comparative advantage Balassa Index (1965) will be used to analyse the comparative advantage at 2-digit and 4-digit level of industrial classification.

This paper is organised as follows: Section 2 reviews the literature and Section 3 focuses on the key trends in footwear industry of Pakistan. Section 4 describes the methodology and Section 5 measures and explains the empirical results. Last section concludes the study.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

RCA measures provide indication on the movement in a region's comparative advantage. Richardson and Zhang (1999) have analysed the patterns of variation across time, sectors and regions for USA. They have used the Balassa index of RCA. They find the patterns to differ across different parts of the world, over time as also for different levels of aggregation of the export data. Differentials are accounted for by factors like geographical proximity of trading partners and per capita income with the extent of influence of these factors varying over time and across sectors/sub sectors.

Bender, Siegfried and Kui-Wai Li (2002) analysed the structural performance and shift of exports and the revealed comparative advantage of the Asian and Latin American regions over the period 1981-1997. They employed the revealed comparative advantage indices firstly to observe the related changes in export pattern among different regions and secondly to examine if changes in the export pattern are associated with shifts in comparative advantage between regions.

Utkulu and Seymen (2004) analysed the competitiveness and the pattern of trade flows from Turkey to the EU at sectoral levels. They made use of different measures of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) (in addition to simple Balassa Index).

The change in Chinese exports patterns has been analysed by Yue (2001). It uses the RCA index to show the changing pattern. It is shown in his empirical investigation that the Chinese exports pattern have changed with its comparative advantage and that there are distinct differences in export patterns between the coastal regions and the interior regions in China.

Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis has been undertaken by Batra and Khan (2005) at both the sector and product level. The study analysed the structural change across sectors in India and China during 2000-2003 and also made a comparative analysis of RCA for India and China for the years 2000 and 2003. It employed Balassa's (1965) measure of relative export performance by country and industry/commodity for the two and six digit level of HS classification. The index of RCA (RCAI) is calculated using data on exports for both India and China from UN COMTRADE.

Another study that used the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) approach at HS 4-digit level is by Mahmood (2004). It examines export specialisation of Pakistan's non-agriculture production sectors during 1990-2000. The study explores the relative position of different non-agricultural production sectors within Pakistan's revealed comparative advantage profile and identifies those non-agricultural export categories, in which Pakistan is losing, gaining or maintaining its export competitiveness.

Hanif and Jafri (2006) construct Balassa's Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index for the textile sector of Pakistan. Their study explores the relationship between the financial development and international trade competitiveness in the case of Pakistan. So they examined the role of access to external finance on the country's textile exports competitiveness. The results show that greater access to external finance has a strong positive impact in the improvement of country's textile sector competitiveness.

The above mentioned empirical studies on revealed comparative advantage provide evidence that the literature focuses more on the measurement of the comparative advantage for various sectors of economies.

3. FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY: FACTS AND PROBLEMS

In the global market, the demand for footwear is high and in most of the developing countries it is growing on average. It is also estimated that about 60 percent of the world's total consumption consists of simple footwear made entirely of non-leather materials and that for the remaining 40 percent only the upper part of the shoe is made of leather. [SMEDA (2006)]. According to UN COMTRADE data, Pakistan footwear exports for the year 2006 were about US$ 135 million. Out of total footwear exports, leather footwear accounts for 43.15 percent, which makes leather footwear extremely significant.

Pakistan's footwear industry manufactures around 120 million pair annually for local consumption and it exports 2 million pair per annum roughly and the average price charged for each pair stands around $10. Its share in Pakistan's total exports is about to touch the figure of $200 million.

3.1. Trends and Patterns of Footwear Export Value and its Growth

Export value of footwear in 2006 increased to US$135.21 million compared to US$75.31 million in 2002 i.e. an increase of 7 percent. For India the increase in value is 9 percent while china's footwear export value grew by 9 percent in the same period.

In the years 2003 and 2004, Pakistan's footwear export value grew by 2 percent and 24 percent respectively. However, in the same years, china's footwear exports growth rate increased by 1 percent whereas India witnessed a 2 percent and 1 percent growth rates respectively 2003 and 2004. In the years 2005 and 2006, growth in the value of footwear exports is positive but lower as compared to previous years for both Pakistan and India. However china witnessed a higher growth in the value of footwear exports in these years.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Volume of Pakistan's footwear exports grew at a considerable rate of 16 percent for the years 2003 and 2004. Whereas, India faced a negative growth of 2 percent in the volume of its footwear exports in the same period and China's footwear exports increased at a rate of 5 percent and 3 percent respectively. In the recent years i.e., 2005 and 2006 the volume of Pakistan's footwear exports increased at lower rates of 9 percent and 3 percent as compared to last two years. India's exports continued to decrease at a rate of 1 percent while china increased its volume of footwear exports by 10 percent and 11 percent respectively.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

The share of Pakistan's footwear exports in the World's total footwear exports is about 0.18 percent while it is 1.6 percent for India and 29 percent for China in the year 2006. For Pakistan it rose from 0.16 percent to 0.23 percent in 2005 and decreased to 0.18 percent in 2006. Footwear exports share in Pakistan's total exports rose to 1 percent in 2005 from 0.7 percent in 2002 and it accounts for about 0.8 percent in 2006 of Pakistan's total exports. India's footwear exports account for about 1.6 percent of total exports while for China the same is 2.2 percent in the year 2006.

Footwear Exports at Disaggregated Level (HS-4)

The pattern of comparative advantage can be different across different levels of dis-aggregation in the sector. Also there are components or sub-products of footwear which contribute more in the total footwear export value of the country. So to analyse the state of sub-products of footwear we also calculate the exports value and their growth rates at the more disaggregated level i.e. the 4 digit level of HS classification.

In terms of sub sector across the footwear industry, footwear, upper of leather (6403) and Footwear, nes (6405) have the largest share in Pakistan's total footwear export value. Footwear nes, outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (6402) is on the third position in terms of its contribution in total footwear exports value. The products (6403) and (6405) have 43 percent and 38 percent share respectively in Pakistan's total footwear export for the year 2006. from the Appendix Tables 1, 2, and 3 it can be inferred that in general, the export value of footwear in sub sectors is increasing over the years. In China, Footwear, upper of leather (6403), Footwear nes, outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (6402) and Footwear, upper of textile mat (6404) are the three major sub sectors respectively in terms of their shares in China's total footwear exports value. The major footwear's sub sectors in India are different as compared with those of Pakistan and China. Footwear, upper of leather (6403), Part of footwear romovable in-soles, heel cushion etc., gaiter etc. (6406) and Footwear, upper of textile mat (6404) are respectively three major contributors to the total footwear export of India. While comparing across countries it is observed that the sector (6403) is largest sector for all the three countries of analysis.

3.2. Major Problems Facing Footwear Industry

* One of the most important problems hindering the growth of footwear industry is higher energy prices. Increasing energy and inputs prices leads to an increase in the cost of production that influences the expected production of the industries and thereby exports.

* Industries do not have footwear training institutes of quality and repute and in result there is a lack of skilled labour force. Thus there exists a problem of absorption capacity in advanced machinery.

* Outdated production methods are still prevailing in the shoe factories.

* Improper availability of raw material.

* There is no mechanism of collaboration between Industry units and other related research organisation and academic institution to improve their productivity.

* Transport and utility infrastructure facilities are not adequate.

* Industry is facing high competition from China providing cheaper footwear product in markets.

* Heavy taxes in the form of sales tax and income tax on retail businesses.

3.3. Role of Entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can play a vital role in the development and progress of the footwear sector of Pakistan.

* They would employ the new techniques for production, design, marketing and management that can improve the business activity in footwear sector.

* They would focus on technical and managerial skills to improve production supply, consistency in production quality and level of production.

* Use of e-commerce strategies can broaden their product market.

* By increasing their supply network at national level and international level through better coordination with retailers and marketers.

* Entrepreneurs have to learn the preferences of domestic and foreign buyers, including quality of production and international standards for the price and delivery of export merchandise.

* By increasing the outlets at domestic level and refine deliver), to appropriate sellers.

* Participation in trade fairs can increase the opportunities to find market for their exports.

* They have to develop the research and development activities for improving quality, physical testing services to tanneries and shoe factories.

4. METHODOLOGY

The revealed comparative advantage approach is one of the few formal methodologies to measure a country's comparative advantage and disadvantage in a particular industry. In theoretical models, comparative advantage is expressed in terms of relative prices evaluated in the absence of trade. Since these are not observed, in practice we measure comparative advantage indirectly. Revealed comparative advantage indices (RCA) use the trade pattern to identify the sectors in which an economy has a comparative advantage, by comparing the country of interests' trade profile with the world average. It defines the pattern in comparative advantage by using the trade flows, since this pattern in comparative advantage is revealed by the observed pattern of trade flows, therefore it is called 'revealed comparative advantage'.

The revealed comparative advantage has some merits and some demerits. The advantage of using the comparative advantage index is that it considers the intrinsic advantage of a particular export commodity and is consistent with changes in an economy's relative factor endowment and productivity. Demerit of using the comparative advantage index is that it is a partial equilibrium framework and a static situation for analysis. It provides general direction of movement and do not predict the potential future comparative advantage in particular sector of economy or of a country. The index is affected by anything that distorts the trade pattern, e.g., trade barriers.

The RCA index is defined as the ratio of two shares. The numerator is the share of a country's total exports of the commodity of interest in its total exports. The denominator is share of world exports of the same commodity in total world exports. RCA takes a value between zero and positive infinity. A country is said to have a revealed comparative advantage if the value exceeds unity. A country therefore has a revealed comparative advantage only in those products for which its market share of world exports is above its average share of world exports.

Based on the basic concept of revealed comparative advantage, many different RCA indices have been suggested [Bowen (1983); Yeat (1985); Vollrath (1991); Lafay (1992); Memedovic (1994); yet the one most widely adopted in empirical studies remains to be the standard Balassa's RCA index [Balassa (1965)] that is as follow

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (1)

Where s is the country of interest, d and w are the set of all countries in the world, i is the sector of interest, x is the commodity export flow and X is the total export flow. The numerator is the share of good i in the exports of the country s, while the denominator is the share of good i in the exports of the world. Mainly the data sources are world development indicators developed by World Bank and UN COMTRADE.

5. RESULTS

In this study, we are measuring the revealed comparative advantage indices for the footwear industry. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part of analysis, we examine the pattern of comparative advantage at aggregate level. The 2 digit-level of Harmonised System (HS-1996) classification is used to measure the RCA indices at aggregate level. In the second part of our analysis, the 4-digit level of HS-1996 classification is used to measure the RCA indices at disaggregated level. The disaggregation at 4-digit would show the pattern of RCA and the fact that it may differ across the industry at different level. We have calculated indices in both analysis for Pakistan and compare with the other Asian countries specially China and India.

5.1. Revealed Comparative Advantages Analysis at Aggregate Level

The estimations for the years 1996 to 2006 provide evidence on the movement in the pattern of revealed comparative advantage for Pakistan, China and India. At HS-2 level, Pakistan has an increasing movement in comparative advantage in footwear industry. The revealed comparative advantage index is greater than unity (RCA > 1) for Pakistan's footwear industry since 2003 and increasing over the year. The reported results in Table 4 show that RCA for pakistan's footwear industry was less than in 1990's till 2002. The increasing export volume and value have shifted Pakistan's position from disadvantage to advantage in footwear and related industries. It indicates that Pakistan footwear industry has a great potential for growth. It has showed a good export performance that is reflected in changing comparative advantage in footwear industry.

In this study, although we are concerned with the changing pattern in comparative advantage of footwear sector in Pakistan, we are also comparing the movement in comparative advantage in footwear industry with China and India. Batra (2005) provides evidence that China and India hold comparative advantage in footwear sector at HS-2 level however China is more advantageously placed than India. Our estimated results are consistent with Batra (2005). China has comparative advantage since 1980's in footwear industry. The RCA indices for China are greater than one since 1996 however they show a decreasing pattern from the year 2001. It decreased from 4.86 in 2001 to 3.55 for the year 2006. India's comparative advantage in footwear industry is revealed since 1990's and the RCA index continued to increase till the year 2002. After that India witnessed relatively less growth in exports of footwear industry that decreased the RCAs since 2002. The RCA indices show that China and India still have comparative advantage in this industry but with the decreasing pattern.

The grey area represents the changing pattern of comparative advantage. It clearly shows that Indonesia, Thailand, India and China have comparative advantage with a decreasing pattern of RCA indices. From the estimated results, we assessed that Pakistan has potential for higher growth in this sector. It has not only one of the top winning countries by giving 6 percent production growth (1) in this sector but it has also shifted its position from disadvantage to comparative advantage.

5.2. Revealed Comparative Advantage Analysis at Disaggregated Level

In the second part of analysis, we measured the RCA at disaggregated level to observe the difference in exports performance within the footwear sub-sector for Pakistan and compared them with China and India. At 4-digit level HS-1996 classification, there are further 6 sectors in footwear industry. Pakistan is enjoying the comparative advantage since 2005 in the sectors of foot, outer sole/upper of rbr/pla(6401), footwear upper of leather(6403) and footwear nes(6405). It has revealed disadvantage in the sectors of footwear nes outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics(6402), footwear upper of textile mat(6404) and part of footwear removable in-soles, heel cushion etc gaiter etc. (6406).

From the RCAs trend, we can predict that Pakistan may have revealed comparative advantage in the sector of footwear nes outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (6402) within next two years. Table 6 shows that the RCA are greater than 1 for all sub-sectors of China's footwear industry. It indicates that China not only enjoys the comparative advantage in the overall footwear industry but also in all the sub-sectors within the industry. All sectors have similar movement in the revealed comparative advantages except the sector, of footwear, nes (6405). The RCA indices trend in Table 7 present the pattern of comparative advantage in footwear industry of India. The results shows that the three sectors have RCA > 1 and the other three sectors have RCA < 1 that represent the comparative advantage and disadvantage respectively within the footwear industry.

India has comparative advantage in the sub-sector of W/p foot, outer sole/upper of rbr/pla(6401), footwear upper of leather(6403) and part of footwear romovable insoles, heel cushion etc; gaiter etc. (6406). Whereas it has disadvantage in the sub-sectors of footwear nes outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics(6402) and footwear upper of textile mat(6404) and footwear nes (6405).

6. CONCLUSION

In this study, we have analysed the performance of footwear industry of Pakistan and made its comparison with China and India. The revealed comparative advantage index has been employed to analyse exports of footwear industry at both two-digit and four-digit level of industrial classification. Our estimated results highlight the pattern of comparative advantage in the footwear sector for the time period 1996 to 2006.

At two-digit level of classification of footwear industry in Pakistan, there have been shifts in the comparative advantage since 2003 and the RCA are increasing over the years. China and India have comparative advantage since 1990, however, their revealed comparative advantages are decreasing in terms of level since 2001. Since 2003, Pakistan experienced an increase in its volume as well as in value of footwear exports that has caused a shift in the position of industry from disadvantage to comparative advantage.

At four-digit level of industrial classification of footwear sector, Pakistan has experienced a strong growth in the industries of sole/upper of rbr/pla (6401), Footwear, upper of leather (6403) and footwear nes (6405). Whereas India has comparative advantage in the sector of W/p foot, outer sole/upper of rbr/pla(6401) and footwear upper of leather(6403) and part of footwear romovable in-soles, heel cushion etc; gaiter etc(6406). On the other hand, China has comparative advantage in all sub-sectors across the industry.

The changing revealed comparative advantage in Pakistan's footwear industry i.e., its shift from disadvantage situation to comparative advantage indicates that there is a potential in this sector for higher growth and the industry can become a source of higher exports earnings. There is a growing perception that the increasing cost of doing business in Pakistan is eroding the competitiveness of the footwear industry in Pakistan. Thus in the rapidly changing global economic environment, there is an urgent need to strengthen the competitiveness of the footwear industry.

Authors' Note: We would like to thank Dr Rashid Amjad, Vice-Chancellor, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad for his encouragement to explore this important issue, valuable suggestions and providing relevant background knowledge of the subject.

REFERENCES

Balassa, B. (1965) Trade Liberalisation and 'Revealed' Comparative Advantage. The Manchester School 33, 99-123.

Batra and Khan (2005) Revealed Comparative Advantage: An Analysis for India and China. Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. (Working Paper 168).

Bender, Siegfried and Kui-Wai Li (2002) The Changing Trade and Revealed Comparative Advantages of Asian and Latin American Manufacture Exports. Yale University, Economic Growth Center. (Discussion Paper Series No. 843.)

Hanif, Muhammad N. and Sabina K. Jafri (2006) Financial Development and Textile Sector Competitiveness: A Case Study of Pakistan. South Asia Economic Journal 9:1, 141-158.

Mahmood, Amir (2004) Export Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage of Pakistan's Non-agricultural Production Sectors: Trends and Analysis. The Pakistan Development Review 43:4, 541-561.

Richardson, David J and Chi Zhang (1999) Revealing Comparative Advantage: Chaotic or Coherent Patterns Across Time and Sector and U.S Trading Partner? National Bureau of Economic Research. (Working Paper 7212).

Utkulu, Utku and Dilek Seymen (2004) Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness: Evidence for Turkey vis-a-vis the EU/15. Paper prepared for the European Trade Group 6th Annual Conference, ETSG 2004, Nottingham.

Vollrath, T. L. (1991) A Theoretical Evaluation of Alternative Trade Intensity Measures of Revealed Comparative Advantage. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 130, 265-79.

Yeats, A. J. (1985) On the Appropriate Interpretation of the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index: Implications of a Methodology Based on Industry Sector Analysis. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.

Yue, Changjun (2001) Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rate and Exports in China. Paper prepared for the International Conference on Chinese Economy, CERDI, France.

Naseem Akhtar and Nadia Zakir are Staff Economist and Ejaz Ghani is Chief of Research at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.

(1) An analysis of world leather value chain and footwear market, Report by TATA international.
Appendix Table 1
Pakistan: Footwear Industry's Exports at HS-4 Level of Industrial
Classification

                                                       2006

                                              Exports      Growth of
HS                                          Value (USD    Exports in
Codes    Industries                         Thousands)     Value (%)

6401     W/p foot, outer sole/upper of
         rbr/pla                                2705          -5
6402     Footwear nes, outer soles and
         uppers of rubber or plastics          15704          67
6403     Footwear, upper of leather            58357          10
6404     Footwear, upper of textile mat         4658           9
6405     Footwear, nes                         52040          30
6406     Part of footwear;romovable in-
         soles, heel cushion etc; gaiter
         etc.                                   1749          34

                    2005                        2004

           Exports      Growth of
           Exports      Growth of
HS       Value (USD    Exports in    Value (USD    Exports in
Codes    Thousands)     Value (%)    Thousands)     Value (%)

6401        1611           15             89           49
6402        3575           75           1571          116
6403       52834           17          51777           17
6404        4367           12           5230           15
6405       89084           35          45960           97
6406        3020           35            791           40

                    2003

           Exports      Growth of
HS       Value (USD    Exports in
Codes    Thousands)     Value (%)

6401         109           72
6402         264          162
6403       52527           18
6404        2301           21
6405       33065          176
6406        1938           58

Source: COMTRADE Database.

Appendix Table 2

China: Footwear Industry's Exports at HS-4 Level of Industrial
Classification

                                               2006

                                      Exports      Growth of
   HS                               Value (USD    Exports in
  Codes     Industries              Thousands)     Value (%)

6401        W/p foot,outer
            sole/upper of rbr/pla      219475         16

6402        Footwear nes, outer
            soles and uppers of
            rubber or plastics        7860345         19

6403        Footwear, upper of
            leather                   8697711         16

6404        Footwear, upper of
            textile mat               2876681         19

6405        Footwear, nes             1360422         31

6406        Part of footwear;
            romovable in-soles,
            heel cushion etc;
            gaiter etc.                798743         18

                       2005                        2004

              Exports      Growth of      Exports      Growth of
   HS       Value (USD    Exports in    Value (USD    Exports in
  Codes     Thousands)     Value (%)    Thousands)     Value (%)

6401           196273         17           153914         12

6402          6667186         19          5554458         19

6403          7990087         19          6248522         15

6404          2380480         19          1874334         15

6405          1199665         38           795133         31

6406           618811         15           576253         19

                       2003                        2002

              Exports      Growth of      Exports      Growth of
   HS       Value (USD    Exports in    Value (USD    Exports in
  Codes     Thousands)     Value (%)    Thousands)     Value (%)

6401           136703         11          4753075         13

6402          4653986         19          3924579         12

6403          5279301         11          1418663         --

6404          1612084         14           461265         --

6405           807740         75           409443         --

6406           464991         14           123060         --

Source: COMTRADE Database.

Appendix Table 3

India: Footwear Industry's Exports at HS-4 Level of Industrial
Classification

                                              2006

                                     Exports      Growth of
  HS                               Value (USD    Exports in
Codes    Industries                Thousands)     Value (%)

6401     W/p foot, outer
         sole/upper of rbr/pla        13465          32

6402     Footwear nes, outer
         soles and uppers of
         rubber or plastics           11886          36

6403     Footwear, upper of
         leather                     908778          23

6404     Footwear, upper of
         textile mat                  40119          15

6405     Footwear, nes                16482          25

6406     Part of footwear;
         romovable in-soles,
         heel cushion etc;
         gaiter etc.                 243946           6

                    2005                        2004

           Exports      Growth of      Exports      Growth of
  HS     Value (USD    Exports in    Value (USD    Exports in
Codes    Thousands)     Value (%)    Thousands)     Value (%)

6401        17466          58           24083         134

6402         5854          19            5178          22

6403       751793          24          565320          20

6404        31116          10           39155          30

6405        23253          50           19106          67

6406       219773           5          197157           1

                    2003                        2002

           Exports      Growth of      Exports      Growth of
  HS     Value (USD    Exports in    Value (USD    Exports in
Codes    Thousands)     Value (%)    Thousands)     Value (%)

6401         6213          40            4463          --

6402         4428          27            3516          --

6403       501907          28          392982          --

6404        31720          36           23316          --

6405        16173         138            6830          --

6406       197852           3          191482          --

Source: COMTRADE Database.


Table 1

Trends in Footwear Exports Value

                      Exports Value (USD Thousands)
                             at HS2 Level

                 2002           2003           2004

Pakistan        75,307         90,204         105418
India          622,589        758,292         849999
China         11090,084      12954,806      15202,613

                 Exports Value (USD
               Thousands) at HS2 Level

                 2005           2006

Pakistan       154,490        135,213
India          1049,255       1234,676
China         19052,503      21813,377

Source: ITC, COMTRADE data.

Table 2
Growth in The Value of Footwear Exhorts

           Pakistan                       China
          Growth of      Growth of      Growth of
          Exports in     Exports in     Exports in
          Value (%)        Volume       Value (%)
                            (%)

2006        14.00           3.00          18.00
2005        19.00           9.00          20.00
2004        24.00          16.00          17.00
2003        28.00          16.00          17.00

                           India
          Growth of      Growth of      Growth of
          Exports in     Exports in     Exports in
            Volume       Value (%)        Volume
             (%)                           (%)

2006        11.00          19.00          -1.00
2005        10.00          19.00          -1.00
2004         3.00          17.00          -2.00
2003         5.00          22.00          -2.00

Source: ITC, COMTRADE data.

Table 3
Footwear Exports Shares in Total Exports and World's Total Footwear
Exports

          Pakistan                       China
         Exports as     Exports as     Exports as
          Share of       Share of       Share of
           Total          World          Total
          Exports        Exports        Exports
            (%)            (%)            (%)

2006        0.80           0.18           2.25
2005        0.96           0.23           2.50
2004        0.79           0.18           2.56
2003        0.76           0.17           2.96
2002        0.72           0.16           3.41

                          India
         Exports as     Exports as     Exports as
          Share of       Share of       Share of
           World          Total          World
          Exports        Exports        Exports
            (%)            (%)            (%)

2006       29.19           0.98           1.65
2005       28.59           1.01           1.57
2004       25.39           1.06           1.42
2003       23.97           1.20           1.40
2002       22.83           1.19           1.28

Source: ITC, COMTRADE data.

Table 4
Revealed Comparative Advantages Analysis at Aggregate Level

Years         HS Code      Pakistan      China

2006             64          1.61         3.55
2005             64          1.47         3.89
2004             64          1.17         3.88
2003             64         0.98#         4.15
2002             64          0.71         4.56
2001             64          0.G         4.86#
2000             64         0.338         5.25
1999             64           --          5.28
1998             64           --          5.07
1997             64           --          4.8
1996             64           --          4.3

Years          India      Indonesia     Thailand

2006           1.414         2.74         1.36
2005           1.505         2.64         1.29
2004            1.63         3.15         1.22
2003            1.71         2.74         1.44
2002           1.63#         2.7          1.71
2001            1.96         3.43        l.64#
2000            1.94        3.57#         1.78
1999            1.99          4           1.78
1998            1.99         3.24          --
1997            1.6          3.34          --
1996            1.58         4.03          --

The grey area represents the changing pattern of comparative
advantage indicated by #.

Table 5
Revealed Comparative Advantage Analysis at Disaggregated Level:
Pakistan

  HS
 Codes    Industries                     2006    2005    2004    2003

6400      All industries in sector 64     1.3     1.5     1.2    0.98
6401      W/p foot, outer sole/upper
          of rbr/pla                      2.7     1.3     0.1     0.1
6402      Footwear nes, outer soles
          and uppers of rubber or
          plastics                        0.7     0.2     0.1    0.02
6403      Footwear, upper of leather       1      0.9     1.1     1.1
6404      Footwear, upper of textile
          mat                             0.4     0.4     0.5     0.3
6405      Footwear, nes                  13.2    20.1    12.3      8
6406      Part of footwear;
          romovable in-soles, heel
          cushion etc; gaiter etc.        0.2     0.4     0.1     0.2

Table 6
Revealed Comparative Advantage Analysis at Disaggregated
Level: China

  HS
 Codes    Industries             2006    2005    2004    2003    2002

6400      All industries in
          sector 64               3.6     4.1     3.9     3.9     4.5
6401      W/p foot, outer
          sole/upper of
          rbr/pla                 3.9     4.1     3.6     3.5     5.2
6402      Footwear nes, outer
          soles and uppers of
          rubber or plastics      6.3     7.6     7.3     6.9     8.5
6403      Footwear, upper of
          leather                 2.6      3      2.9      3      3.4
6404      Footwear, upper of
          textile mat             4.7     5.1     4.4     4.4     5.5
6405      Footwear, nes            6      5.3     4.8     5.7     5.1
6406      Part of footwear;
          romovable in-soles,
          heel cushion etc;
          gaiter etc.             1.6     1.4     1.5     1.4     1.6

Table 7
Revealed Comparative Advantaee Analysis at Disaggregated Level: India

 HS
Codes   Industries             2006    2005    2004    2003    2002

6400    All industries in
        sector 64               1.6     1.6     1.6     1.7     1.6
6401    W/p foot, outer
        sole/upper of
        rbr/pla                 1.8     2.3     4.1     1.3     1.2
6402    Footwear nes, outer
        soles and uppers of
        rubber or plastics      0.1      0      0.2     0.1      0
6403    Footwear, upper of
        leather                 2.1     2.1      2       2      1.7
6404    Footwear, upper of
        textile mat             0.5     0.4     0.7     0.7     0.6
6405    Footwear, nes           0.6     0.8     0.9     0.7     0.5
6406    Part of footwear;
        romovable in-soles,
        heel cushion etc;
        gaiter etc.             3.7     3.7     3.8     4.2     4.6
Gale Copyright: Copyright 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.